Assessing the Giants' chances of returning to the playoffs with McCutchen
The San Francisco Giants aren't familiar with losing.
No team from the Bay Area has lost 98 games or more, not since the 1985 Giants, who were beaten 100 times that year. Since then, San Francisco has appeared in five World Series, winning three of them. It wasn't until 2016 that the Giants' streak of even-year titles would come to an end, leading to missing the playoffs altogether in 2017.
With the Giants going out and acquiring former National League MVP and now ex-Pittsburgh Pirates franchise icon Andrew McCutchen, the message is clear: Back-to-back losing seasons is not in the cards. But one has to wonder whether or not the Giants - whose depth leaves much to be desired, and whose average age is just over 30 - can return to the postseason.
After the Evan Longoria and McCutchen acquisitions, the Giants are projected to win 85 games next season, according to FanGraphs. Factoring in the Colorado Rockies, whose 87 wins were enough to clinch the second wild-card spot last year, the Giants will need 85-plus wins or more in 2018 to clinch one of the two berths.
Assuming, of course, that the Los Angeles Dodgers secure top spot in the NL West, with the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals being safe bets to finish first in their respective divisions. That would leave the Giants, presumably, competing with the St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, and New York Mets for a wild-card spot.
A lot can change from now to the regular season. The 83-win Cardinals of a year ago have made some nice moves acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna, among others, and don't appear to be done. Same goes for the aforementioned Rockies, who re-signed Jake McGee and added Bryan Shaw and closer Wade Davis to an improved bullpen. This should be enough for the Cardinals and Rockies to compete, at worst, for a wild-card spot. That leaves the Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Mets.
Arizona was one of the best stories from 2017 after losing 93 games the year prior. The Mets were the opposite of feel-good stories going from a World Series appearance in 2015, winning 87 games in 2016, to finishing 22 games below .500 this past season. A lot of that is attributed to an abysmal offense and an injury-riddled starting rotation. When healthy, the Mets and Diamondbacks have two of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, highlighted by Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom. Barring change, both starting rotations will be key in matching up with the Giants.
The Brewers have the bleakest outlook of all NL teams that won 80-or-more games in 2017. A poor second half (36-35 record), a thin starting rotation that will be without Jimmy Nelson for the early parts of 2018, and a below-average offense that ranked 20th in baseball with 93 wRC+, but finished with the sixth-highest BABIP (.308), are reasons why.
A lot needs to happen for the D-Backs and Mets, let alone the Brewers, for them to threaten the Cardinals, Giants, and Rockies for wild-card spots. After a solid campaign, Arizona has been quiet so far this winter. On top of reportedly shopping Greinke and Patrick Corbin, and potentially losing J.D. Martinez, the club lacks a reliable closer. If Martinez resigns, or if Arizona acquires a viable replacement, the club immediately leapfrogs the remaining competition and could threaten Los Angeles for the division. If not, it isn't unreasonable to assume the Giants, and others, can compete with the D-Backs.
With McCutchen and Longoria in the mix and the progressive subtraction of Matt Moore (Texas Rangers) and Matt Cain (retirement) from the starting rotation, the Giants appear slightly better than the Mets and significantly better than the Brewers. The Giants now have six players (McCutchen, Longoria, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Hunter Pence) projected to finish with 100 wRC+ or more. The Mets (Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera) have five, while the Brewers (Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Eric Thames) have three.
For San Francisco, sending two marginal prospects away for one year of McCutchen is a good move. The rotation still boasts three legitimate starters in Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija and the front office has financial wiggle room thanks to the Rays and Pirates taking on parts of Longoria and McCutchen's salaries. Along with the possibility of further upgrades, the two veterans will improve an offense that should recover after a poor performance last year.
All it took for the 88-win Giants from 2014 was a wild-card spot to advance and win their third World Series title in five years. The McCutchen trade signifies an attempt to remain competitive in 2018, and with an additional move here and there (cue Lorenzo Cain rumors), the Giants should be in the mix again. For one of the most dedicated fan bases in baseball starved for a winner, that's more than enough.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
Projections and statistics courtesy of FanGraphs