History shows teams should be wary of signing Martinez to long-term deal
There's understandable hesitancy from major-league clubs to offer players any deal exceeding five years.
You don't have to look far back into the history books to see how crippling a long-term deal can be for a franchise's finances, and how unmovable these players can become soon after signing.
J.D. Martinez is one of those sluggers currently on the market who's dealing with reluctant suitors. Make no mistake, Martinez is among the league's elite hitters, but with a player entering his age-30 season who's considered a defensive liability, it's tough for a front office to commit more than half a decade and over $100 million. To date, Martinez has reportedly received multiple five-year offers, but nothing equaling the seven-year, $200-million deal his agent, Scott Boras, went into the winter seeking.
Here's a look at recent long-term deals that have been signed by position players, how they've worked out, and how Martinez compares:
The Good
Justin Upton
Contract: 6-year, $132.75M (2016)
AAV: $22.125M
Team: Detroit Tigers
Age when signed: 28
Remaining Deal: 4 years, $88.5M*
Stats: 305 GP, 66 HR, 196 RBIs, .259/.335/.502, 6.3 WAR
Upton entered free agency coming off an All-Star year in which he hit 26 homers, but his most attractive quality was his age. Entering his age-28 season and as a capable defender, there was less risk in giving Upton a long-term deal. While his OPS dropped to .775 in his first season, he bounced back nicely in 2017, earning an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger while also clubbing a career-high 35 homers and 109 RBIs. His production was so good that the Angels extended Upton with a new five-year deal* in November after acquiring him during the season.
Robinson Cano
Contract: 10-year, $240M (2013)
AAV: $24M
Team: Seattle Mariners
Age when signed: 31
Remaining deal: 6 years, $144M
Stats: 624 GP, 97 HR, 361 RBIs, .295/.351/.472, 16.4 WAR
It's not often the Yankees are ever outbid, but that was the case when the Mariners blew them away with their offer to Cano back in 2013. There was certainly enormous risk signing a 31-year-old second baseman to a 10-year deal, but Cano has been excellent as he heads into the halfway point of his contract. There's still plenty of time for this deal to go bad, but in four years, Cano has been an All-Star three times, finished top eight in MVP voting twice, and missed just 24 games.
The Bad
Jason Heyward
Contract: 8-year, $184M (2015)
AAV: $23M
Team: Chicago Cubs
Age when signed: 26
Remaining deal: 6 years, $134.16M
Stats: 268 GP, 18 HR, 108 RBIs, .243/.315/.353, 2.4 WAR
It's hard to blame the Cubs for this one, as Heyward certainly checked off every box a team could ask for when looking to sign a free agent to a long-term deal. He was coming off a strong campaign, had three Gold Gloves on his resume, and was heading into his age-26 season. Heyward's first year was a disaster, though he rebounded a bit in 2017 and remains an elite defender in right field, picking up back-to-back Gold Gloves since joining the Cubs. But with so many young players on the roster arbitration eligible - or nearing that point - it could be tough for the team to lock up its entire core while Heyward is owed considerable salary.
Chris Davis
Contract: 7-year, $161M (2016)
AAV: $23M
Team: Baltimore Orioles
Age when signed: 29
Remaining deal: 5 years, $115M
Stats: 285 GP, 64 HR, 145 RBIs, .218/.322/.443, 3 WAR
After Davis belted 126 combined homers over three seasons - leading the majors twice in that span - the Orioles extended their relationship with the slugger, handing him a new $161-million deal. The strikeout totals were something Baltimore had learned to live with, but Davis' dwindling production since signing the deal has become a major concern. Not only has he whiffed 414 times in 1,022 at-bats (40.5 percent), but he's hitting just .218 over the last two seasons.
Shin-Soo Choo
Contract: 7-year, $130M (2013)
AAV: $18.5M
Team: Texas Rangers
Age when signed: 31
Remaining deal: 3 years, $62M
Stats: 469 GP, 64 HR, 217 RBIs, .259/.358/.420, 5.1 WAR
Choo was coming off his best MLB season, in which he accrued 5.5 WAR while finishing with the fourth-highest OBP behind Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Mike Trout. The only real cause for concern was Choo's age, but after missing just 15 games across the previous two seasons and considering his strong on-base skills, he appeared worth the risk. Since signing in Texas, Choo has kept a solid OBP, but his average has plummeted to .259 over the four seasons, while he's also missed considerable time (179 games) with injuries.
The Ugly
Prince Fielder
Contract: 9-year, $214M (2012)
AAV: $23.7M
Team: Detroit Tigers
Age when signed: 27
Remaining deal: 3 years, $72M (Released)
Stats: 613 GP, 89 HR, 372 RBI, .283/.369/.453, 6.7 WAR
There was a point in time when there wasn't a player more durable than Fielder. Despite his hefty frame, he missed just 13 combined games over the previous six seasons before signing his monster deal with the Tigers, and he didn't miss a single game across his first two seasons in Detroit. That all changed when he was traded to the Rangers, however. Fielder missed 197 games over the first three seasons in Texas before he was forced to retire in 2016 following multiple spinal fusion surgeries. While insurance helped pay half of the remaining $72 million the Rangers owed Fielder, the Tigers were still responsible for $24 million.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Contract: 7-year, $153M (2013)
AAV: $21.85M
Team: New York Yankees
Age when signed: 30
Remaining deal: 3 years, $68.4M
Stats: 520 GP, 39 HR, 102 SB, 198 RBIs, .264/.330/.386, 8.6 WAR
Ellsbury heads into the 2018 season as the Yankees' fourth outfielder, and considering his remaining salary and full no-trade clause, he's essentially unmovable. The Yankees ignored a number of warning signs with this signing. After his breakout 2011 campaign in which he finished second to Justin Verlander in MVP voting, Ellsbury hit just 13 homers and missed 116 games over the next two seasons before signing in New York. Durability continues to be a major issue, as he's averaged just 130 games over the past four seasons, while also struggling to hit for much power.
Albert Pujols
Contract: 10-year, $240M (2011)
AAV: $24M
Team: Los Angeles Angels
Age when signed: 32
Remaining deal: 4 years, $114M
Stats: 870 GP, 169 HR, 589 RBI, .262/.319/.459, 7.6 WAR
Pujols' worst six seasons in terms of WAR have all come since signing in Los Angeles, and he's still owed more than $110 million over the next four years that will see him play into his age-41 season. After he was a perennial MVP candidate in St. Louis, the Angels disregarded any concerns about Pujols' age, signing him for a decade at 32 years old. Typically, teams will sacrifice some difficult later years in return for elite offensive seasons at the start of a deal, but Pujols' decline has come rapidly, and 2017 was the first time his on-base percentage fell below .300. With further concerns about his health and ability to hit in the middle of the order moving forward, the Angels could be paying Pujols significant money for diminishing returns over the next four seasons.
On Deck - J.D. Martinez
Contract: Seeking 7-year, $210M
AAV: $30M
Age: 30
Stats: 119 GP, 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303/.376/.690, 3.8 WAR
Much like Choo, Upton, and Fielder, Martinez couldn't have picked a better season to hit free agency. The slugger hit 29 homers with a 1.107 OPS in 62 games with the Diamondbacks last year, vaulting him to the top of the free-agent market. And over the past four seasons, Martinez solidified himself as an elite hitter, slashing .300/.362/.574 with 128 homers. There are several areas of concern, though. He's a poor defender, and would likely be better served as a DH. Committing seven years to a player who doesn't play a key position is tough. Davis and Pujols will each likely spend their final years as a DH, tying up the position and giving their rosters less flexibility. Martinez hits free agency younger than Pujols, Choo, and Cano did, but far older than Fielder, Upton, and Heyward were. With multiple five-year offers reportedly received, it's likely Martinez will hold out for at least a six-year deal, and the team that eventually signs him will have to hope his contract holds up better than the majority of his peers' long-term deals have.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)