Why Stanton should say no to San Francisco
It's understandable Giancarlo Stanton wants out of Miami. Eight straight years of losing will do that, but if it's winning the reigning MLB home run champ truly desires, a trade to the San Francisco Giants would be a mistake.
Stanton's representatives met with top Giants executives Thursday night as the club tried to sell Stanton on the Bay Area. They'll likely pitch the franchise's rich baseball history, which includes three World Series titles since the slugger`s MLB debut in 2010; a ballpark that finished third in attendance last year despite housing a losing team; and their belief he's the missing piece needed for a postseason return.
But if Stanton takes off the blinders of greener pastures, he'll see some real concerning trends about his potential new home.
Aging core coming off miserable season
Injuries decimated San Francisco's roster last season and a clean bill of health will certainly go a long way to improving, but expecting the majors' third-oldest core of position players to all bounce back and be healthy is a big ask.
Madison Bumgarner's dirt bike incident was a freak accident, but Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Denard Span, Brandon Crawford, and Hunter Pence have all missed considerable time in recent years and their health moving forward could be concerning.
The Giants ranked 16th in OPS at second base, 19th at first base, 23rd at center field, 28th at left field, and 30th at right field and third base. Keeping everyone in the lineup will continue to be a challenge, and the depth behind these players when they do get hurt is limited.
Even with Stanton, the offense has holes
The Giants hit the fewest home runs in the majors last season and even if you add Stanton's 59 bombs, they still would have ranked 23rd.
The offseason shopping list is long and far from complete even if Stanton is added. The club needs help at third base, left field, and center. They will also want to add a second baseman if they include Joe Panik in any Stanton deal. That list doesn't even include the help needed at the back end of the rotation and in the bullpen.
| Order | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denard Span | CF |
| 2 | Brandon Belt | 1B |
| 3 | Buster Posey | C |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RF |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | SS |
| 6 | Hunter Pence | LF |
| 7 | Christian Arroyo | 2B |
| 8 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B |
The Giants currently have approximately $165 million committed in guaranteed salaries for 2017. Stanton is owed $295 million over the next 10 seasons, with an average annual value of $29.5 million counting towards the luxury tax. Even if the Marlins eat a portion of Stanton's deal, San Francisco will still have limited money to fill the remaining holes on the roster.
The future isn't friendly
The Giants are considered to have one of the worst farm systems in the majors, and are reportedly willing to deal two of their top three prospects for Stanton.
The slugger needs to consider the lack of prospects coming up through the minor-league system. Belt, Posey, and Crawford are all signed on through 2021, but are all entering their age-30 season or older.
It's a very plausible reality the Giants end up blowing up their roster in two to three years, leaving Stanton stuck in a similar position as the one he left.
The division is stacked
The National League West is far from being the National League East.
Stanton's Marlins finished second in the East last season despite winning only 77 games, as the Nationals are the only real postseason threat in a rebuilding division. The same can't be said for the NL West, as three teams reached the postseason in 2017 and will remain competitive heading into next year.
The Giants not only have to worry about the Los Angeles Dodgers - a team that won an MLB-best 104 games and five straight division titles - but also the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, who have solid cores and money to spend.
Stanton has all the power in negotiations because of his full no-trade clause. His preference is the Dodgers, and he shouldn't feel strong-armed to go into a situation on which he isn't 100 percent sold. With three months until the start of spring training, he must take his time, regardless of the Marlins' desire to get a deal done.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)