Why Tanaka should opt out of $67M and ride his playoffs to free agency

It took a few years and a very rocky 2017 campaign, but the Masahiro Tanaka that the New York Yankees paid $155 million for has finally arrived. Tanaka's been absolutely dominant this October, allowing just a pair of runs across his three playoff starts.

Enjoy the Tanaka Show now, Yankees fans. Because with every stellar postseason outing, the possibility of the right-hander exercising his opt-out clause to become a free agent at season's end grows larger.

Of course, opting out of $67 million over three years in guaranteed money is a risky proposition for a pitcher with elbow concerns who had an up-and-down regular season, but his October may have changed things. Here are three reasons why Tanaka should opt out and ride these playoffs into the open market.

Head of the class

This year's crop of free-agent pitchers is, simply put, not good. Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish lead the way, with the Shohei Otani wild card right behind them. Beyond that, it's slim pickings from an available group that's heavy on question marks and lacks fortune-changing players.

If Tanaka hits free agency, he'll stand out to teams who are ace-hunting in this otherwise tepid market, risks and all. He'll also be armed with a fresh October resume to dangle for attention, and the value of recency bias can't be ignored. No team with eyes on postseason glory would turn away this version of Tanaka if he came knocking tomorrow, and almost certainly not during a winter when other impact options are limited.

Pay up, Yankees

If Tanaka wants to stay in New York long term, there may be even more risk on his end. In August, a report suggested that if he does opt out, the Yankees will simply bid him farewell and let him walk away.

But even in the Bronx, recency bias has to factor into this. No matter what the front office may know about his elbow, in New York the playoffs count more than anything else, and it has to shape their thinking. By opting out now, Tanaka can force the Yankees' hand if they don't want to risk seeing him earn playoff glory in another uniform.

There's also the fact that no team can withstand a contract turning bad like the Yankees. If they were to hand Tanaka a new deal similar to what they gave CC Sabathia after his 2011 opt-out - five years, around $23 million annually, and some vesting options - it wouldn't be a payroll-killer by any means if it went sour. The Yankees can give that to Tanaka and still have enough dough for next year's super-group of free agents.

He's getting his money regardless

If Tanaka opts out and the Yankees don't pay him, someone will - and teams will line up. Seattle has the longest playoff drought in baseball, plays in a pitcher's paradise of a ballpark, and still always need pitching. The Angels don't want to waste Mike Trout, lack internal pitching upgrades, and have an owner who isn't afraid to make free-agent splashes. Heck, the Cubs could lose Arrieta and are never short on cash. Any team that will chase Darvish and/or Arrieta would likely also look at Tanaka if he's available.

There are risks abound, but this winter is a unique one, and it's lining up to allow Tanaka to beat the three years and $67 million left on his current contract in free agency. He's 29 years old, has this October in his pocket, and could lead a weak class of arms.

For Masahiro Tanaka, this will now be his winter to shine.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)