Ranking the top 20 free-agent pitchers
With the offseason now underway, theScore's MLB editors ranked the top 20 free-agent pitchers available this winter. The two groups are separated by starters and relievers.
STARTERS
1. Yu Darvish, RHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | 3.86 | 186.2 | 10.08 | 1.16 | 3.5 |
Darvish is the consensus top pitcher on the market, but whether he follows the trend of luring $200-plus million overtures remains to be seen. In his first full year removed from 2015 Tommy John surgery, the 31-year-old became the fastest pitcher to reach 1,000 strikeouts in league history. Could his stock plummet after a pair of terrible World Series outings, though?
Potential fits: Rangers, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Mariners, Astros, Brewers, Angels, Cubs, Cardinals
2. Jake Arrieta, RHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-10 | 3.53 | 168.1 | 8.71 | 1.22 | 2.4 |
The workload from his absolutely dominant 2015 campaign may have caught up to Arrieta, just as the ace is heading for free agency. Since his commanding 2015, everything has regressed for the 31-year-old right-hander, a year where he crafted a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings. That may limit the term of some offers, but with a scant pitching market, Arrieta is a lock to lure a nine-figure bid.
Potential fits: Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, Astros, Brewers, Angels, Cardinals
3. Alex Cobb, RHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-10 | 3.66 | 179.1 | 6.42 | 1.22 | 2.4 |
While Cobb may be looked upon as a bargain pitching option this offseason, the right-hander put up an identical WHIP and WAR to Arrieta in 2017. Despite finishing the campaign as the second slowest starting pitcher in all of baseball, Cobb returned to his effective self since undergoing Tommy John in 2015.
Potential fits: Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Brewers, Angels, Cardinals, Orioles
4. Lance Lynn, RHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | 3.43 | 186.1 | 7.39 | 1.23 | 1.4 |
Like Darvish and Cobb, Lynn, too, has undergone a recent Tommy John surgery. For Lynn, though, his calling card has always been his innings-eating workload. Since 2012, Lynn has averaged more than 180 innings each year, with 2016 - his recovery season - omitted. Admittedly, the 30-year-old saw an uptick in home runs allowed this past year but, then again, so did the entire league.
Potential fits: Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Brewers, Angels, Cardinals, Orioles
5. CC Sabathia, LHP*
*Agreed to 1-year, $10-million deal with Yankees
| W-L | ERA | IP | SO | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | 3.69 | 148.2 | 7.26 | 1.27 | 1.9 |
Sabathia's late career renaissance has been one of the better storylines in baseball. In fact, since the beginning of 2016, Sabathia's 3.81 ERA is lower than David Price, Julio Teheran, Masahiro Tanaka, and Rick Porcello's. Of course, the fact he's 37 suppresses his value, but a team could do worse than taking a chance on a one or two-year deal.
6. Andrew Cashner, RHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-11 | 3.40 | 166.2 | 4.64 | 1.32 | 1.9 |
Cashner had an oddly dominant year, posting his best ERA since 2013 while striking out roughly 4.5 batters per nine innings - the second-worst mark of any qualified starter this past year. That equates to his ERA beating his FIP by the third-largest margin. Everything points toward regression for the 31-year-old.
Potential fits: Rangers, Orioles, Padres, Reds, Mariners, Angels, Royals, Phillies
7. Jaime Garcia, LHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-10 | 4.41 | 157 | 7.39 | 1.41 | 2.1 |
It must have been hard for Garcia to face his old team in the AL wild-card game. The one-time Twins starter - literally, he made one start - only made one postseason appearance for the Yankees after signing with the Braves this past offseason. The longtime Cardinal turned journeyman is an interesting candidate for a buy-low deal.
Potential fits: Twins, Athletics, Orioles, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Royals, Phillies, Giants, Blue Jays, Rockies
8. Tyler Chatwood, RHP*
*Agreed to 3-year, $38-million deal with Cubs
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-15 | 4.69 | 147 2/3 | 7.31 | 1.44 | 1.1 |
Chatwood has the benefit of being the youngest free-agent pitcher on the market, and also having pretty favorable peripherals. His 22 percent home-run-to-flyball rate is sure to regress away from Coors Field, and his 58.1 percent groundball rate was among the best in baseball. The 27-year-old might be the diamond in the rough of this free-agent class.
9. Doug Fister, RHP*
*Agreed to 1-year, $4-million deal with Rangers
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | 4.88 | 90.1 | 8.27 | 1.38 | 1.4 |
Fister will enter the offseason with ALDS Game 3 starter on his resume - and that's not alluding to his days with the Tigers. Since his 2014 season, Fister has had trouble recapturing any sustainable excellence, bouncing between the Nationals, Astros, and Red Sox. The 33-year-old has lives left, though.
10. Jason Vargas, LHP
| W-L | ERA | IP | K/9 | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-11 | 4.16 | 179.2 | 6.71 | 1.33 | 1.6 |
Vargas had a truly unbelievable first half, posting a 2.62 ERA over 106 1/3 innings. Problem is, unbelievable things are just that - unbelievable. In the second half, Vargas turned back into a pumpkin with a 6.38 ERA in his final 73 1/3 innings. There's a chance the 34-year-old lefty was just worn down, though. The 2017 season was his largest workload since 2014 - undergoing Tommy John in 2015.
Potential fits: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Athletics, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers
RELIEVERS
1. Wade Davis*
*Agreed to 3-year, $52-million deal with Rockies
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | SV | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 2/3 | 2.30 | 12.12 | 1.14 | 32 | 1.1 |
Davis is the spirit animal for all converted starters looking to become elite relievers. After a 5.32 ERA in his last season as a starter in 2013, Davis went on to post 72 innings in relief without allowing a single home run. Despite a down year, the 32-year-old will likely be in line for at least what Mark Melancon got last year.
Potential fits: Cubs, Cardinals, D-Backs, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Rangers
2. Greg Holland
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | SV | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 1/3 | 3.61 | 10.99 | 1.15 | 41 | 1.1 |
A year ago, teams were wary to buy in on Holland after Tommy John surgery, especially when his velocity seemed to dip. However, in his one year with the Rockies, the elite reliever surpassed expectations, striking out batters with his hallmark impunity. In the second half, he tapered off a bit, but perhaps the Coors effect could explain some of that away?
Potential fits: Cubs, Cardinals, D-Backs, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Rangers
3. Addison Reed*
**Agreed to 2-year, $16.75-million deal with Twins
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | SV | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 2.84 | 9.00 | 1.05 | 19 | 0.9 |
Reed had a sneaky great year with the Mets - especially at home. At the friendly confines of Citi Field, the 28-year-old posted a 1.01 ERA over 26 2/3 innings, with opponents slugging a measly .290 against him. With the Red Sox, though, Reed allowed five home runs over 27 innings, which could drive away suitors who play in smaller ballparks.
4. Pat Neshek*
*Agreed to 2-year, $16.25-million deal with Phillies
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 1/3 | 1.59 | 9.96 | 0.87 | 23 | 2.5 |
The only thing holding Neshek back is the fact he's 37. The unceasing side-armer just had the best season of his career, striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings while suppressing home runs in the era of juiced balls. Not to mention, one-third of his workload was with the Rockies, who play in home-run-happy Coors Field. Neshek's suitors will be plentiful.
5. Brandon Morrow*
*Agreed to 2-year, $21-million deal with Cubs
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 2/3 | 2.06 | 10.31 | 0.92 | 10 | 1.6 |
Morrow's resurgence as an elite setup man has been a true metamorphosis, usurping the incumbent Pedro Baez from the Dodgers' role. The 33-year-old didn't allow a single home run this year. His workload in the World Series may have exposed some weaknesses, though almost any pitcher would be fatigued after pitching all seven games of the Fall Classic.
6. Brandon Kintzler*
*Agreed to 2-year deal with Nationals
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | SV | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 1/3 | 3.03 | 4.92 | 1.15 | 29 | 0.9 |
In the age of swing-and-miss flamethrowers, Kintzler has ticked right along as an elite groundball guy. Since 2015, the 33-year-old has induced a groundball on 58.2 percent of balls in play. For teams looking for elite relief without the elite price tag, Kintzler might be an intriguing name to watch.
7. Bryan Shaw*
*Agreed to 3-year, $27-million deal with Rockies
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 2/3 | 3.52 | 8.57 | 1.21 | 26 | 1.6 |
Shaw had the most valuable fastball among all qualified relievers this year, according to FanGraphs. Owning a cutter that averages just under 95 mph helped generate an 11.8 percent swing-and-miss rate. Everything points toward Shaw's breakout 2017 campaign - one in which he led all of baseball in appearances yet again - being unequivocally legit.
8. Anthony Swarzak*
*Agreed to 2-year, $14-million deal with Mets
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 1/3 | 2.33 | 10.59 | 1.03 | 27 | 2.2 |
Swarzak had a sneaky great year, striking out 30 percent of batters who stepped up to face him. The only bump against the 34-year-old is that he started serving up dingers at a troubling rate during his midseason move to the Brewers - something he did in 2016 with the Yankees as well. If he's missing bats, he's great. If bats aren't missing though, yikes.
9. Joe Smith*
*Agreed to 2-year deal with Astros
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 3.33 | 11.83 | 1.04 | 21 | 1.8 |
It's somewhat shocking to find out Smith had the same WAR this season as Ken Giles - and in nearly 10 fewer innings no less. His K/9 puts him in the company of Brad Hand, and his BB/9 was the eighth-best in baseball. The 33-year-old Smith had a great campaign, albeit in limited work, and won't have to settle for the one-year, $3-million deal he got last year.
Potential fits: Mets, Indians, Rockies, D-Backs, Athletics, Cubs, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Rangers, Brewers, Blue Jays
10. Jake McGee, LHP*
*Agreed to 3-year deal with Rockies
| IP | ERA | K/9 | WHIP | HLD | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 1/3 | 3.61 | 9.10 | 1.10 | 20 | 1.5 |
Rounding out the top 10 of a pretty strong relief market is McGee, who bounced back in his final year with the Rockies since coming over in the Corey Dickerson deal. The 31-year-old lefty struck out over a quarter of the batters he faced last year and actually handled right-handed hitters just as well, if not better, than left-handers.
(Pictures courtesy: Action Images)