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Each week during the college football season, Covers Experts' Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Sharps have flagged these games as lines to keep an eye on for Week 7:
Spread to bet now:
UNLV (+7.5) at Air Force
This line opened at +10.5 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now before it hits the key number of +7 or less. The Rebels are taking a substantial step down in class after facing Ohio State and San Diego State in two of the past three weeks. In their other two FBS games this year, UNLV won easily 44-16 at Idaho and 41-13 versus San Jose State.
Air Force is 0-4 SU against FBS opponents this year and their overall season stats are inflated due to a blowout win over VMI to start the season. The Falcons have been horrible on defense, allowing 32.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play, versus opponents that allow just 25.3 ppg on 5.6 yppl. UNLV's offense has been strong this year, averaging 6.9 yards per play versus opponents that allow just 5.5 yppl.
Spread to wait on:
Akron (+14.5) at Western Michigan
This line has already risen from +13 to +14.5. Akron started the season with a 52-0 loss at Penn State, but the Zips have been underrated since, going 4-1 ATS in their past five games. Akron enters with momentum from an impressive 31-3 win versus Ball State last week. The Zips also have a huge revenge motive after an embarrassing 41-0 shutout loss at home versus Western Michigan last season.
This is a terrible scheduling situation for Western Michigan as they just played an incredible 7-overtime marathon at Buffalo last week. The Broncos won 71-68 in that historic game and should be flat this week, especially after defeating Akron easily last year. A letdown is especially likely on defense as the Broncos have allowed 5.8 yards per play this year, versus a weak schedule of opponents that average just 5.2 yppl.
Total to watch:
Boise State at San Diego State (45)
Boise State utilized their bye week with a solid 24-7 win at BYU last Friday night. It followed a surprising home loss versus Virginia (23-42) as a 14-point favorite. Boise State has scored 28 points or less in four of their five games this season. They will now face a strong San Diego State defense that is allowing only 19.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play, versus opponents that average 30.0 ppg on 6.1 yppl this year.
While San Diego State is a strong defensive team, their offense is overrated. The Aztecs have benefited from facing a weak slate of opposing defenses that allow 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season. San Diego State will now be taking a substantial step up in class against a Boise State defense that permits only 24.6 points per game on 4.6 yards per play this year, versus opponents that average 5.7 yppl.