30 Slots, 30 Stars: The best first-round picks of the 21st century
How much does your slot matter on draft night, really? Owners are probably hoping the answer isn't much, as evidenced by the recent lottery reform passed by a near unanimous vote that will flatten lottery odds, in an effort to reduce tanking.
As of 2019, even the most rebuilding of teams will have a hard time relying on a top pick reversing their fortunes, with the worst record now only having a 14 percent chance of landing the top pick, and with each team in the lottery top 10 having the chance to slide as many as four places down on lottery night.
Doesn't make that much of a difference, though, right? You can get star talent anywhere in the lottery, and you can find a real starter just about anywhere in the first round. Maybe, but of course, the further down the draft you go, the slimmer the pickings get. If you're wondering just how bad it gets, well, here's our list of the best player(s) taken with each first round draft slot this century.
Sometimes talent clusters around a pick you wouldn't expect, and sometimes a number is so barren you won't believe we're already 18 drafts into this century. Take a look below, and see what the lottery-flattened future may have in store for your home ball club.
No. 1 pick: LeBron James (2003)
Pretty simple: The best player of the century, and perhaps the most obvious No. 1 pick to boot. Interesting to wonder how far back you'd have to go before there's another No. 1 pick that would've challenged LeBron for top overall prospect - Duncan? Shaq? Ewing? Even with a handful of multiple All-Stars and one MVP-winner, there's definitely no one close to a challenger this millennium, that's for sure.
Honorable Mentions: Dwight Howard ('04), Yao Ming ('02), John Wall ('10)
No. 2 pick: Kevin Durant (2007)
Also pretty simple - maybe the second-best player of his generation, and certainly the No. 2 pick that haunts the one team that picked ahead of him most this century (maybe the most ever, too). The really staggering thing is how few No. 2 overall picks have even mounted any kind of credible challenge to KD's supremacy here: only one other draft runner-up this century has been named an All-Star.
Honorable Mentions: LaMarcus Aldridge ('06), Tyson Chandler ('01)
No. 3 pick: James Harden (2009)
A little tougher now, since Harden probably had the highest peak of any player taken No. 3 this century, but he's been in the league for less than a decade, whereas a couple picks at the beginning of the century were multiple All-Stars and are still around and relevant. Still, spending multiple years as an MVP candidate on a title contender is something only one of these guys has been able to accomplish.
Honorable Mentions: Pau Gasol ('01), Carmelo Anthony ('03)
No. 4 pick: Chris Paul (2005)
Can you name the players taken ahead of CP3 in '05? Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, and Deron Williams - and who would've guessed that of those three, the one who's still at least decently relevant is Marvin? The '08 top three ahead of Russell Westbrook might have aged even worse, though: Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and O.J. Mayo. One of those dudes is MIA, and the other two might be one more anonymous season away from joining him.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Bosh ('03), Westbrook ('08)
No. 5 pick: Dwyane Wade (2003)
Wade fell to No. 5 in one of the most stacked drafts in NBA history, a draft where even the Pistons can't even be too mad for whiffing at No. 2 with Darko Milicic, since they won the title the next year. Speaking of, Wade's example helps prove that not all lottery teams are created equal: within two seasons, he was contending for championships, while the two runner-ups in this draft slot never even sniffed the postseason before eventually being traded.
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Love ('08), DeMarcus Cousins ('10)
No. 6 pick: Brandon Roy (2006)
It's the battle of the Blazers here, since Roy's primary competition comes from a fellow hero guard who'll probably overtake Roy here in a season or two. But for now let's give it to the guy Minnesota traded for Randy Foye. Not a lot to write home about beyond those two, though: it seems like a particularly bustible section of the draft, with Jan Vesely, DaJuan Wagner, Jonny Flynn, and Yi Jianlian all calling No. 6 home.
Honorable Mentions: Damian Lillard ('12), Danilo Gallinari ('08)
No. 7 pick: Stephen Curry (2009)
A no-brainer here, obviously. Never forget that the Timberwolves had picks both No. 5 and No. 6 - and took two point guards with said picks - and still somehow left without Curry. Not that anyone in Minnesota is likely to forget anytime this century.
Honorable Mentions: Luol Deng ('04), Nene ('02)
No. 8 pick: Jamal Crawford (2000)
We're not even out of the top 10, and we already have our first draft slot that's yet to produce a single All-Star this century. It's mostly a mix of the mediocre (Jordan Hill, Terrence Ross, T.J. Ford) and the outright forgettable (DeSagana Dip, Joe Alexander, Rafael Araujo) at No. 8, leading to longtime sixth man Crawford being easily the most obvious choice here. Yeesh.
Honorable Mentions: Rudy Gay ('06), Channing Frye ('05)
No. 9 pick: Andre Iguodala (2004)
Just try telling a Sixers fan in 2010 that we'd some day be ranking Andre Iguodala above Amar'e Stoudemire on a list like this, and it wouldn't even be a stretch. An All-Star appearance, a Finals MVP, and a couple of rings later, Iguodala finally is getting the respect he deserves, and may even get some down-ballot Hall of Fame consideration in his retirement if the Dubs keep winning like this. Meanwhile, poor Amar'e.
Honorable Mentions: Stoudemire ('02), Joakim Noah ('07), Gordon Hayward ('09)
No. 10 pick: Paul George (2010)
If a couple of other brilliantly versatile three-and-D wings had been drafted even later in the first round later in the decade, we'd talk a lot more about how crazy it was that George slipped to 10 in '10 - below Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, and Al-Farouq Aminu. You could make a case that Joe Johnson has had a better career than PG-13, given his longevity, but … nah.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Johnson ('01), Caron Butler ('02), C.J. McCollum ('13)
No. 11 pick: Klay Thompson (2011)
Already the fourth member of this year's Golden State Warriors team to appear on this list! Of course, only Thompson and Curry were actually drafted by the Dubs, but nonetheless it tells you something pretty important about how well this team was put together. And no, we're not doing the second round for this, so unfortunately Draymond Green won't get to make it five.
Honorable Mentions: J.J. Redick ('06), Myles Turner ('15)
No. 12 pick: Thaddeus Young (2007)
Nothing against Young, who has had a respectable ten-year career and is generally a player of use in the NBA, but if he's the best your best-case scenario for a particular draft slot, that might mean the slot ain't worth a whole lot. For your morbid curiosity, the three No. 12 picks taken before Thad was scooped up: Robert Swift, Yaroslav Korolev, and Hilton Armstrong. Ick.
Honorable Mentions: Steven Adams ('13), Dario Saric ('14)
No. 13 pick: Richard Jefferson (2001)
RJ never made an All-Star team, but was still a consistent 20 PPG scorer in his prime, and served as an unlikely late-career contributor on the Cavs' first championship two seasons ago - very respectable for late-lottery. This is specially respectable considering the next two years, the No. 13 picks were the back-to-back mediocre Morrises, Haislip and Banks.
Honorable Mentions: Markieff Morris ('11), Devin Booker ('15)
No. 14 pick: Patrick Patterson (2010)
Patrick Patterson? Yes, the versatile forward and career bench player may very well be the best player the No. 14 pick has produced this century - with the only real competition coming from stat-padding bigs that never won anything, and one-way wings that had one or two good seasons before becoming largely unplayable. We're not even out of the lottery yet.
Honorable Mentions: Troy Murphy ('01), Kris Humphries ('04), Ronnie Brewer ('06)
No. 15 pick: Kawhi Leonard (2011)
Pretty absurd spike on the chart here with the Spurs' perennial MVP candidate and almost certainly the best player taken in the mid-first round this century. He's not without his competition there, though: Giannis Antetokounmpo, taken just two drafts later in the same spot, may be pushing him for that title soon enough.
Honorable Mentions: Antetokounmpo ('13), Al Jefferson ('04)
No. 16 pick: Hedo Turkoglu (2000)
The '00 draft is remembered as the century's worst, and rightly so - though the 2016 draft looks like half-decent competition for that one season in, it's going to have to have a truly stunning amount of misses to really pose a threat to 2000's crappiness. But they did get one mid-round hit: Hidayet "Hedo" Turkoglu, the so-called "Michael Jordan of Turkey" and an eventual Most Improved Player winner for the Orlando Magic.
Honorable Mentions: Nikola Vucevic ('11), Jusuf Nurkic ('14)
No. 17 pick: Josh Smith (2004)
The No. 17 pick is the ultimate breeding ground for players who very briefly flirted with All-Star status and fell apart not long after: J-Smoove is probably the leader of the pack, with Jrue Holiday, Danny Granger, and Roy Hibbert all fairly close behind. If Zarko Cabarkapa ever had such a flirtation, however, it was frisky but short-lived.
Honorable Mentions: Holiday ('09), Granger ('05), Hibbert ('08)
No. 18 pick: David West (2003)
A two-time All-Star and now an NBA champion, David West provided the kind of on- and off-court stability you can very rarely hope to find this late in the draft. Other such No. 18 picks included JaVale McGee, Gerald Green and J.R. Smith, so sort of case in point there.
Honorable Mentions: Ty Lawson ('09), Eric Bledsoe ('10)
No. 19 pick: Jeff Teague (2009)
Probably not even one of the five best point guards taken in that 2009 first round - but that's more about that draft's unusual depth than Teague, who actually made an All-Star team just three seasons ago, and is still an established starting point in the league. Indeed, "established starter" seems to be the ceiling for the No. 19 pick, though there have been a decent number of those taken in that slot in recent years.
Honorable Mentions: Tobias Harris ('11), Avery Bradley ('10)
No. 20 pick: Zach Randolph (2001)
It's a little crazy that Z-Bo went this late in the draft, though that was undoubtedly partly due to the fact that Randolph was bound to be a headache for whatever team drafted him - as he certainly was for the Blazers for over half a decade. At 20, a headache for years of strong starting performance is a pretty fair tradeoff.
Honorable Mentions: Jameer Nelson ('04), Evan Fournier ('12)
No. 21 pick: Rajon Rondo (2003)
One of the keys to Boston's Big Three era wasn't just landing Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the same off-season, but of poaching a starting point guard (and eventual multiple All-Star) so late in the draft, courtesy of the consistently own-foot-shooting Phoenix Suns. The Suns sort of did the same thing with the Hawks and Boris Diaw, but it cost 'em Joe Johnson in the process.
Honorable Mention: Diaw ('03), Ryan Anderson ('08)
No. 22 pick: Kenneth Faried ('11)
Tough to know exactly how to judge Faried here - is he the guy who excelled for Team USA at FIBA in 2014, or the guy finding it an increasingly tougher time to get off the bench for the Nuggets in '17? The NBA world may be passing Faried by a little, but for this late in the draft, he was still a steal, and his Per 36 and efficiency numbers remain somewhat stupefying.
Honorable Mention: Courtney Lee ('08), Mason Plumlee ('13)
No. 23 pick: Tayshaun Prince ('02)
As with the Celtics and Rondo, one of the final pieces of the Pistons' championship-contention puzzle ended up being the rapid development of the late-drafted Tayshaun Prince into a starter and core piece. Within two seasons, he was an essential part of the team circuitry, starting every playoff game of the team's '04 title run.
Honorable Mention: Wilson Chandler ('07), Rodney Hood ('14)
No. 24 pick: Kyle Lowry ('06)
You forget sometimes just how late Kyle Lowry was initially drafted - which could have been a major steal for the Memphis Grizzlies if they hadn't alienated Lowry by drafting Mike Conley with a top-five pick two years later and traded him to the Rockets a couple of years after that. It helped grow the chip on Lowry's shoulder by the time he got to the Raptors, if nothing else.
Honorable Mention: Serge Ibaka ('08), Reggie Jackson ('11)
No. 25 pick: Nicolas Batum ('08)
Batum was a largely unknown quantity, dumped by the Rockets on the Blazers on draft night 2008 for a return of … not much (Joey Dorsey may still be bouncing around the D-League somewhere). It was a pretty big surprise when he ended up starting for Portland pretty much immediately, quickly growing into a key player in a very solid Blazers starting five.
Honorable Mention: Tony Allen ('04), Clint Capela ('14).
No. 26 pick: George Hill ('08)
One of the quintessential "Of course the Spurs would take him, and of course he'll turn into a legit NBA player" late-first-round picks that makes fellow GMs ram their heads into a wall seemingly every draft night. Hill was snatched out of essentially the middle of nowhere - IUPUI, proud members of the Horizon League - and within a few years, he was pushing Tony Parker for a starting role and (eventually) getting traded for Kawhi Leonard.
Honorable Mention: Kevin Martin ('04), Gerald Wallace ('01)
No. 27 pick: Rudy Gobert ('13)
Along with Giannis, the ultimate redeemer of the much-maligned 2013 draft. It's still fairly insane to consider that Anthony Bennett was taken 26 picks before the Stifle Tower. Of course, fear that Gobert would just be a stiff in the NBA was considerable, but given his measurables and sheer upside, it's still pretty stunning that so many teams passed on him in favor of a lot of guys who are barely hanging on the league's fringes at this point.
Honorable Mention: Arron Afflalo ('07), Kendrick Perkins ('03)
No. 28 pick: Leandro Barbosa ('03)
The Brazillian Blur was actually another inspired first-round steal by the Spurs, but was traded to the Suns for a future first-rounder, where he'd become a Sixth Man of the Year perennial and an integral part of the 7 Seconds or Less era. Quick shoutout here also to Skal Labissiere, who in a class of early disappointments looks like the rare player from the '16 draft who might actually go on to well out-perform his slot.
Honorable Mention: Ian Mahinmi ('05), Tiago Splitter ('07)
No. 29 pick: Tony Parker ('01)
Yep, one more Spur, and arguably the key to their entire dynasty. Parker's growth into a starter and even a borderline-MVP candidate kept San Antonio title-relevant through the end of the decade and into the '10s, until Leonard came of age enough to replace TP as the Spurs' leader and offensive centerpiece. Still one of the greatest draft picks of all time.
Honorable Mention: Josh Howard ('03), Cory Joseph ('11)
No. 30 pick: Jimmy Butler ('11)
Really, it's between Parker and Butler for the first-round steal of the century. The Bulls got their next franchise player with the very last pick of the first round in '11 - the kind of found-money acquisition that often results in a team becoming championship contenders.
Didn't quite work out that way for Chicago, despite the fact that they had made the conference finals the year before Butler's selection - too many injuries and too much toxicity. But no matter what else the oft-criticized Gar Forman and John Paxson do to further mar their resumes in Chi-town, nabbing Jimmy Buckets at No. 30 will always prevent the balances from totally tipping against them.
Honorable Mention: David Lee ('05), Festus Ezeli ('12)
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)