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17 players potentially in line for $18M qualifying offer this offseason

Peter G. Aiken / USA TODAY Sports

The qualifying offer is set for another increase this offseason, escalating from $17.2 million to $18 million, according to a report from Buster Olney of ESPN.

The math on how the qualifying offer is decided upon is relatively simple; by taking the average salary of the league's 125 top-compensated players. According to Olney, the qualifying offer could land closer to $18.1 million, though.

While it's still a few months - and a trade deadline - away, the free-agent market has some interesting names in line to receive a qualifying offer. Of course, if a player ends up getting traded, he is no longer eligible to receive an offer.

It will be interesting to follow whether or not the new collective bargaining agreement impacts a given team's willingness to utilize a qualifying offer. The compensation for a player who departs after rejecting an offer is no longer a first-round draft pick and is now, at best, a second- and fifth-rounder.

Let's take a look at which players' free-agent market could potentially be spoiled this offseason:

No-brainers

Barring some monumental collapse, the Chicago Cubs are one of the few teams with impending free agents good enough to get a qualifying offer while also boasting a near-null chance of trading them away.

Greg Holland should probably be considered a virtual lock to turn down his $15-million player option this upcoming offseason after showcasing to the league that he really is back. If he's good enough to opt out, he'll be good enough for the Colorado Rockies to extend the closer a qualifying offer.

Player Team
Jake Arrieta Chicago Cubs
Wade Davis Chicago Cubs
Greg Holland Colorado Rockies

Highly likely, if not traded

These players are likely to get the $18-million offer sheet if they remain with their current team. Everyone on this list has appeared, to some degree, in the rumor mill - though the Kansas City Royals have been on a roll of late and are no longer especially likely to sell.

Player Team
Zack Cozart Cincinnati Reds
Eric Hosmer Kansas City Royals
Lorenzo Cain Kansas City Royals
Mike Moustakas Kansas City Royals
Jay Bruce New York Mets
Lance Lynn St. Louis Cardinals
Yu Darvish Texas Rangers
Jonathan Lucroy Texas Rangers

Could, if the stars align

And here is the list of players who have either struggled, would need to opt out of their current deals, or, for whatever other reason, could see their teams decide against handing them the opportunity to be paid $18 million for one year of work.

Player Team
Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians
Carlos Gonzalez Colorado Rockies
Masahiro Tanaka New York Yankees
Johnny Cueto San Francisco Giants
Alex Cobb Tampa Bay Rays
Logan Morrison Tampa Bay Rays

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)

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