Twins' Santana defying odds, on pace to set impressive record
In case you've missed it, Ervin Santana has been miraculously great this year and - since he's somehow sustained it for nearly two full months - it's probably time to take full notice.
Santana leads baseball in ERA, RE24, complete-game shutouts, innings pitched, and the Baseball-Reference version of WAR - as you may suspect, since it's based primarily on ERA.
The 34-year-old Minnesota Twins starter also leads in one more category, and, if Santana can keep it up - he'd set the major-league record for lowest H/9 rate of all time ... and it isn't even close.
| Pitcher | H/9 | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Ervin Santana | 4.2 | 2017 |
| Nolan Ryan | 5.3 | 1972 |
| Luis Tiant | 5.3 | 1968 |
| Pedro Martinez | 5.3 | 2000 |
| Nolan Ryan | 5.3 | 1991 |
(Stats courtesy: Baseball-Reference)
That's right, Santana sits atop a leaderboard that includes three Hall of Famers and is beating them by more than a full hit per nine innings.
Of course, this comes with some caveats. For instance, Santana is flaunting a BABIP of .143 through his first 11 games. If he were to maintain that, he would have the first sub-.200 mark and allow hits on balls in play more than 50 points lower than anyone in the sport's recorded history.
BABIP is typically an indicator of regression, as an especially high or low mark is usually unsustainable. There are some exceptions for teams with great infield defense, but not 50-points-past-the-all-time-record exceptions.
Santana's career average BABIP mark is nearly double his 2017 pace, which would seem to imply he's going to allow double the hits on balls in play for the balance of the year.
Let's assume the Twins actually do have a good defensive infield - a bold assumption in itself, though Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco are posting favorable defensive numbers. If Santana allows hits on a quarter of his balls in play - 30 points better than his career average - the rest of the way, and everything else stays equal, over 200 innings Santana's H/9 would jump to over six.
So, unless the new Twins regime is deploying the infield shift in an unprecedented way, or Santana has found some unique method to generate weak contact, the record will likely stay property of Nolan Ryan. It's a notable chase regardless, though, and Santana's stretch through one-third of the season has been unbelievable - in more ways than one.