Strasburg could finally be a Cy Young candidate
Since debuting in 2010, Stephen Strasburg has posted a 2.85 FIP - the fifth-best mark of any qualified starter in that span - yet still gets described as a disappointment; the burden of being a first overall pick.
Less than nine months ago, a FanGraphs article written by Corinne Landrey entitled "Stephen Strasburg Has a Problem" and cited "the disintegration of his ground-ball rate" as a main factor for his hype-defying struggles.
Meanwhile, fellow Washington Nationals' starter Gio Gonzalez was coming off of a season in which he seemed to make an adjustment as well. In 2015, Gonzalez posted the highest ground-ball rate of his career - his only season where more than half of balls in play off of him were grounders.
Gonzalez has seemed to abandon that approach since, though. That, or the hitters that face the 31-year-old lefty have made a corresponding adjustment. Either way, it's been to his detriment.
What's interesting, however, is that Strasburg seems to have picked up where his teammate left off. Despite posting the worst strikeout rate of his career, Strasburg is putting together his best season by WAR ever - and could finally eclipse the elusive 5 WAR threshold and legitimately enter Cy Young candidacy.
In lieu of missing bats, one may suspect that the 28-year-old ace has been surrendering more walks. While that may partially be the case, his 2017 total is just half a percentage point higher than his career norm.
Let's look at Strasburg's soft-contact trends over the past five seasons compared to this year:
| Year | K% | GB% | Soft% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 30.2% | 44.2% | 19.8% |
| 2013 | 26.1% | 51.5% | 18.0% |
| 2014 | 27.9% | 45.9% | 15.4% |
| 2015 | 29.6% | 42.2% | 21.8% |
| 2016 | 30.6% | 39.5% | 21.4% |
| 2017 | 23.7% | 49.2% | 23.7% |
(Stats courtesy: FanGraphs)
While there's very little evidence to support whether or not pitchers have influence on the quality of contact made on their pitches, it is a notable trend that Strasburg's soft-contact rate has improved by nearly 32 percent since 2013.
Not to mention, a nearly 10 percentage-point increase in ground balls from last season. It didn't seem to come at the expense of his strikeout rate until this season, though.
It's not as though Strasburg is the beneficiary of BABIP luck either; his .297 mark is a rounding-error away from being identical to his career norm.
It's not all good news, though; there is one worrying trend. Strasburg does seem to be posting an abnormally low home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. At seven percent, that luck may wear off and return to his 11 percent career norm. That being said, it has only saved him between one or two home runs so far.
While he is coming off of his worst outing of the season, allowing five earned runs over six innings against the Baltimore Orioles, the ace might be tapping into some extra, post-hype potential in his age-28 season in what is appearing to be a huge season for the Nationals franchise.