Emphasizing the Triangle offense makes Derrick Rose irrelevant in fantasy

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The New York Knicks' "superteam" is off to an ugly start. The 2-4 Knicks already rank dead last in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 110.9 points per 100 possessions, and team president Phil Jackson is reportedly unhappy with the team's offensive scheme so far.

Jackson, the 11-time champion coach of Bulls and Lakers fame, has leaned heavily on the "Triangle offense" through his legendary tenure, an offensive philosophy that the current roster has not embraced under head coach Jeff Hornacek. For reasons that will become clear, if the team does emphasize the Triangle, the fantasy outlook of the Knicks' core will change dramatically.

What is the Triangle?

The Triangle has traditionally placed a larger spotlight on two players - a scoring wing (think Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant) and an interior force with playmaking ability (Scottie Pippen, Pau Gasol, and in his own way, Shaquille O'Neal). These players tend to dominate usage, with the remaining three players adding complimentary and secondary offensive threats.

The Knicks have players that fit those two roles: Carmelo Anthony on the wing and either savvy veteran passer Joakim Noah or 7-foot-3 science experiment Kristaps Porzingis. The third point on the Triangle is typically formed with an off-ball point guard, and the other two players spacing out the defense on the weak side of the floor.

So why can't that work for the Knicks?

The off-ball guard role is the key here. Where does that leave point guard Derrick Rose? Here's what PG Derek Fisher's shot chart looked like in a Triangle-heavy offense during the 2001-02 season, the final year in the Kobe-Shaq Lakers 'threepeat':

And here is Rose's shot chart from his moderately healthy 2015-16 season with the Bulls:

Rose is a career 30.2 percent 3-point shooter and has shot just 28.5 percent on 3s since 2014; Fisher shot a passable 36.9 percent from distance in his first nine seasons. Rose's lack of a perimeter game makes him a poor fit as the third man in the Triangle. Kicking out to Rose in the corner is more likely to end with a bricked shot or haphazard drive into traffic than a made 3-pointer.

Rose is the Knicks' second-highest usage core player (26.2 percent) behind Anthony (30.9 percent) but isn't skilled enough to orchestrate the offense that Jackson wants to run. Even if the Knicks moved Rose to the weak side and ran the Triangle with SG Courtney Lee as the third man, Rose's lack of range would still allow defenders to crowd the paint against Noah and Porzingis.

New York has two options: heed the preference of the players - especially Rose, who has executed a play as the team's ball-handler 34.2 percent of the time, often as part of his favorite play time, the pick-and-roll - or heed the preference of Jackson and shift to more of a Triangle-based approach.

Fantasy impact if the offense stays the same

As long as Rose gets looks out of the pick-and-roll, he'll continue logging 16/4/5 lines. That's on par with other mid-to-late roster guard options like Emmanuel Mudiay, Deron Williams and Lou Williams, none of which can be considered a must-own fantasy player at this early or late stage in their career. If Rose has more value than these players, it's because of name recognition.

The biggest loser in the first scenario is Porzingis. Though Rose is a big proponent of being the ball handler, just 11.3 percent of Porzingis' plays have featured him as the roll man so far. He will continue to be marginalized within the offense at a time when other young bigs like Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid have had rosters and rotations tailored to their unique gifts.

The need to create space inside for Rose has also impacted the distribution of Porzingis' attempts. 37.9 percent of his shots have been 3-pointers, up from 27.4 percent in his rookie season. Since he's still taking close to 35 percent of his shots within eight feet of the basket, the increase in outside shooting has come with a reduction in shots between eight feet-plus and the 3-point line.

Though shooting 43.3 percent from deep gives him fantastic 3PMs for his position, the increased distance from the hoop makes it tougher to contribute in two other areas: his rebounds (via offensive rebounds) are down from 2.3 to 2.1 and his assists are down from 1.6 to 0.9, adjusted per 36 minutes.

As it stands, Porzingis is still valuable as a PF, averaging 18.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and some outside shooting, but had drafters known that he wouldn't take quite as much of a step forward in year two, they might've opted to just wait to grab Tobias Harris in the fifth round instead without sacrificing much production.

Fantasy impact if the Knicks embrace the Triangle

If the offense integrates Porzingis into role where he can create scoring chances from the interior, his assist totals, as well as offensive rebounds and overall scoring, should all rise, even if his 3-point attempts drop. That shift would move Porzingis closer to being a top-30 fantasy player this season.

That would also mean that Rose's value would bottom out. Take him out of a situation where he is one of the driving forces in the offense and his scoring and assists per game will drop low enough that he isn't worth owning. He only shot 39.0 percent on spot up shots from anywhere on the court last season, so it's unlikely he'd thrive in any sort of off-ball role.

Regardless of what happens with the Knicks' offensive scheme in the coming weeks, Rose's value will never be higher than it is today. He doesn't have the hops to be a 20 PPG scorer at this point in his career and a change in team philosophy can only hurt him.

There's already the lingering injury concerns that will always limit Rose's long-term outlook. If he drops to a 12/4/4 line, his fantasy value will hinge entirely on the number of games the Knicks play in a given week. He'll ultimately be restricted to streaming option appeal.

Through it all, Melo will remain an SF1-quality player regardless of scheme. He'll continue to see 18 field goals per game, and his uncharacteristically poor shooting from behind the arc (22.6 percent) will bounce back to his career rate (34.3 percent), which will help create more space for Rose regardless of where he is on the floor and what Jackson and Hornacek ultimately land on.