Fantasy Fallout: Game over for Siemian sees Paxton Lynch's value make gains
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Here are the fantasy implications following the announcement that Denver Broncos QB Paxton Lynch will start Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons:
#Broncos are starting first-round QB Paxton Lynch tomorrow, as Trevor Siemian's shoulder isn't there yet, source said (@MikeKlis on it 1st)
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 8, 2016
In season-long fantasy, those relying on Broncos QB Trevor Siemian prior to this announcement either have serious Broncos ties or something went horribly wrong. That's not to say he has been particularly bad, as he's thrown six TDs and only three interceptions while amassing 824 yards through four games. Chances are, however, that more proven options are available.
Two-QB Formats
In two-QB formats, Lynch is worth targeting due to his high-end receiving options, and just how thin the position gets through general wear-and-tear. In relief of Siemian in Week 4, Lynch went 14-for-24 for 170 yards and a touchdown to Emmanuel Sanders. Factor in Demaryius Thomas, and Lynch has the tools at his disposal to be a sleeper in deep formats.
His place atop the Broncos' depth chart is tenuous and depends on both his performance and Siemian's health. Siemian didn't play himself out of a job, and will likely regain the starter's role if Lynch doesn't have a superhuman Sunday against the Falcons' defense.
Owners who just lost Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton may also want to consider Lynch as a temporary replacement while waiting for good news after Week 5.
The Tournament Flier
Lynch should be on everyone's DFS radar for Week 5. The instability of his long-term situation makes him a risky season-long proposition, but he could be an inexpensive one-off. The Falcons' pass defense has been contemptible, allowing the second-most passing yards per game and a league-worst 13 passing TDs. If there was ever a week Lynch would be poised to succeed, it's this one.
With salaries locked in prior to Siemian's change in status, Lynch comes at something of a bargain. He's not the cheapest projected starter, but he's cheap enough to afford serious upgrades at other positions. With such a small sample size, it's difficult to recommend him as a cash game option, but with a stable of receiving options and a faulty opponent, he could reach tournament upside.
Lynch's start shouldn't lessen Sanders' or Thomas' potential. Few were high on Siemian to start the season, and Lynch was a first-round pick with relatively high expectations despite not being considered as highly as Rams QB Jared Goff or Eagles QB Carson Wentz. RB C.J. Anderson will almost certainly see 20-plus carries for Denver, as he did in the first two starts of Siemian's career.