For those of us unwilling to wait until after 3 a.m. EST to see if Hawaii could slide through the back door and cover a big number at home against Wyoming, checking theScore on Sunday to find out we went 4-3 on our seven most valuable underdogs in this space was better than waking up to the smell of bacon. That modest effort, alongside a 4-1 record in our big-game bets, bumps us to 65-45-1 (59.1%, +14.5 units) on the season.
Air Force vs. Army (+7, 40.5)
Army quarterback Tyhier Tyler got knocked out of a blowout loss to Wake Forest - a team the Cadets are going to have trouble with due to poor pass defense. However, Jemel Jones thrived in the pivot of the triple-option ahead of this matchup, which could decide the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Cade Ballard wasn't the answer in early losses to top competition, so it's ironic that Jones, as the third choice, might be best running the option, as he has over 200 yards rushing and five touchdowns in two games since taking over.
Air Force has done little other than disappoint, with its most significant win coming over Navy - another triple-option team - by just three points. Look for this one to come down to the wire as it did in overtime last year.
Pick: Army +7
Marshall @ Old Dominion (+3, 46.5)
Contrary to popular belief, Marshall has played more than just one game this season. The Thundering Herd upset Notre Dame in September and added another good half of football in a comeback win over James Madison - turning over the Dukes' overwhelmed backup quarterback five times.
Kudos to Georgia State for sacking Old Dominion's Hayden Wolff six times and shutting down star receiver Ali Jennings last week, but we'll bet against the Monarchs allowing that to happen again at home. That should allow them to gain 400-plus yards as they did in the previous three weeks.
Pick: Old Dominion +3
Baylor @ Oklahoma (-3.5, 61.5)
Let's investigate Baylor's losses this season.
- Double overtime at BYU
- By 11 to Oklahoma State despite outgaining the Cowboys 457-379
- 43-40 versus West Virginia on a Thursday night, with 590 total yards
These results put the Bears under the radar, in contrast with Oklahoma, which predictably excelled in plus-matchups after Dillon Gabriel returned from the concussion that kept him out of the Red River game. However, when the Sooners faced good teams with Gabriel, they lost to Kansas State at home and at TCU.
Baylor's offense is better than most believe and can score on Oklahoma's 55th-ranked defense (according to Football Outsiders).
Pick: Baylor +3.5
No. 18 Oklahoma State @ Kansas (PK, 63)
Shhhhh - don't tell anyone that we're technically cheating the premise by playing a pick'em game. Kansas opened as the underdog only to get bet down based on rumors of injuries to Spencer Sanders and a handful of other starters. With Oklahoma State's big goals getting wiped out at Kansas State, there's no reason to put banged-up players in harm's way.
The Jayhawks are back home after a bye week, which hopefully gave the defense time to recharge with an eye on getting bowl-eligible. The offense was still clicking with Jason Bean, and with the team needing one more win to make the postseason, this is its best chance.
Pick: Kansas PK
No. 25 UCF @ Memphis (+3, 59)
This line opened at UCF -5, and the drop down to a field goal is probably a bad sign for the availability of John Rhys Plumlee after a scary concussion last week. While the Knights survived Cincinnati, this trip to Memphis sets up as a letdown spot. The Tigers can throw the ball far better than the Bearcats could and similar to how ECU did when it hammered UCF at home, so a field goal is enough for us.
Pick: Memphis +3
Auburn @ Mississippi State (-12.5, 51)
Our long, international nightmare is over: Bryan Harsin is finally out at Auburn. Reportedly on the cusp of being ousted for almost a year now, the Tigers should feel some relief now. Their strengths - running the football and defending the pass - measure up well with Mississippi State. Moreover, that sound you're hearing from Starkville isn't a cowbell - it's the air coming out of the Bulldogs' balloon after their annual blowout at the hands of Alabama.
Pick: Auburn +12.5
James Madison @ Louisville (-7, 52.5)
Louisville hammered Wake Forest last week as short home underdogs, but the Cardinals were beneficiaries of an unbelievable six third-quarter turnovers after being down at halftime. Recording eight total takeaways again isn't realistic.
James Madison had the ideal timing for a bye last week - it had lost two games, the second of which was the aforementioned backup quarterback fiasco against Marshall. This line is a hint that JMU will get starter Todd Centeio back. The bye also bought them time to prepare for Louisville, with head coach Curt Cignetti telling the The Breeze, the school newspaper, about how excited the players are to be on ESPNU.
James Madison was ranked before it slipped at Georgia Southern, and the team is good enough to hang with Louisville in an oddly placed game amid its ACC schedule.
Pick: James Madison +7
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.