Will Ohio State cover huge spread vs. Northwestern in the Big Ten title game?
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Ohio State and Northwestern vie for the Big Ten title Saturday for the second time in three years.
Planning to get down some money on the game? Here's everything you need to know about the prime-time clash.
Odds
Line: Ohio State -20.5
Total: 57.5
Ohio State is the largest favorite in the weekend's championship games. That's not surprising after the Buckeyes laid double digits in all five games this season, covering three.
Northwestern, meanwhile, finds itself in the underdog role for just the second time all year. The Wildcats nabbed an outright win on Nov. 21 against Wisconsin as seven-point 'dogs in their first try. They're 6-1 overall this season, outscoring their opponents by more than 10 points per game.
The total is a bit of a question mark given these teams' contrasting styles. It's the lowest total of the season for the Buckeyes and the highest for the Wildcats.
Tale of the tape
SP+ pegs Ohio State as the third-best team in the country behind Alabama and Clemson. Quarterback Justin Fields has propelled the offense to at least 38 points per game in all five contests.
But a Buckeyes defense that lost a handful of players to the NFL draft has had frequent lapses in 2020. The unit has allowed at least 25 points in three games this year and ranks outside the top 10 in DF+, a defense-focused advanced metric.
Northwestern is No. 30 in overall SP+, trailing five other Big Ten programs, including Ohio State. The Wildcats' offensive numbers aren't sexy - the team ranks 100th in the country in total yards per game and No. 90 in scoring - but the defense has been lights out, ranking No. 2 in points allowed.
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has been one of the better coaches to back as a 'dog over his career, but he's struggled against Ohio State: Northwestern is just 1-7 against the spread the last eight in this series.
Important betting trends
- Northwestern is 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 on turf
- Northwestern in 6-1 to the under the last seven conference games
- Ohio State is 12-5 ATS the last 17 as a favorite
- Ohio State is 6-2 to the under the last eight versus winning teams
- The over is 6-1 the last seven meetings between these teams
Best bet - Ohio State -20.5
Ohio State is in a class of its own in the Big Ten. Not only does SP+ see a clear gap between the Buckeyes and the fourth-best team in the country (Florida, 3.7 points lower), but there are four conference teams separating Ohio State and Northwestern. This is as big a mismatch as you'll find in a title game.
Though Ohio State has struggled against explosive units, the Wildcats are anything but, averaging just 4.6 yards per play. And while the Buckeyes' defense has struggled, it still has plenty of NFL talent.
With this spread creeping below three touchdowns, lay the chalk on the favorite.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.