Skip to content

Pac-12 title game preview: Oregon, USC might break the scoreboard

MediaNews Group/Torrance Daily Breeze via Getty Images / MediaNews Group / Getty

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Washington's unable to play in the Pac-12 title game against USC this Friday due to COVID-19 complications, so Oregon gets a shot at the belt instead.

This should be a fun one in Southern California. Here's everything bettors should know for the electrifying tilt.

Odds

Line: USC -3.5
Total: 62.5

It took a while for USC to get going, but it's finally firing on all cylinders. The Trojans survived back-to-back scares to the Arizona schools out of the gate, then ripped off three straight against the spread.

Oregon is an underdog for the first time since last year's Rose Bowl. The Ducks won outright in their previous two games as 'dogs under head coach Mario Cristobal.

The total of 62.5 is the second-highest of the season for Oregon. Its defense has a tall task against one of the nation's top units.

Tale of the tape

The Trojans brought back one of the most experienced offenses from last season. They haven't skipped a beat, scoring at least 28 points in all five games so far, including a season-high 43 on Saturday over archrival UCLA.

Quarterback Kedon Slovis has the deepest receiving corps in the nation; five players have at least 15 catches, while four boast multiple receiving touchdowns.

Oregon's defense lost multiple players following a dominant year, so the current unit has yet to shed its training wheels. The Ducks are allowing 419.8 total yards per game while only registering a pair of takeaways.

The Ducks covered consecutive contests to start the year but enter Friday on a three-game drought. They lost outright to Oregon State as 13-point favorites and most recently fell to Cal as nine-point chalk.

Important betting trends

  • Oregon is 4-0 ATS in its last four versus teams with winning records
  • Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six as a road underdog
  • Oregon is 8-2 to the over in its last 10 Friday games
  • USC is 2-6 ATS in its last eight December games
  • USC is 5-0 to the over in its last five versus teams with winning records

Best bets - Over 62.5

There aren't many overs that I like this weekend. However, this game should feature both the pace and volume to get there.

I'm surprised the advanced metrics don't like USC's offense more. OF+ ranks the unit at just No. 13 in the country, which is right on par with programs such as Coastal Carolina (No 10), Iowa State (No. 12), and Texas (No. 14). Perhaps a Pac-12 Air Raid offense would be crushed by a top-flight defense, but this is still a conference game against a subpar team.

Oregon's defense pales in comparison to last year's stout group. The Ducks are 3-2 and have an opportunity to play in this clash thanks to their offense, which has posted 7.1 yards per play. Oregon ranks just No. 110 in the nation in plays run per game (66), but considering how fast USC likes to play (76.2), the Ducks should have plenty of possessions.

If you're a fan of fireworks, tune in to this one. Bet the over and make some money while you're at it.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox