CFB Week 11 best bets: A great matchup for Florida's defense
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Last week's picks were a roller coaster, and that's putting it kindly.
Western Kentucky covered despite not scoring a touchdown, while Virginia Tech (-16) and Penn State (-25) both lost outright. If Week 11 is anything like last Saturday, we're in for more chaos.
Here's what's on our radar.
Miami @ Virginia Tech (-2.5, 68), 12:00 p.m. ET
Though this appears to be a shootout on paper, I'm struggling to get to this number. Both offenses can light it up, but the defenses are being overlooked.
Miami's No. 22 in the nation in defensive SP+. I mentioned earlier in the week that playing the Hurricanes under the total as road underdogs is usually a good bet: They've cashed each of the last five in this scenario.
Virginia Tech's No. 46 in defensive SP+. The Hokies just gave up 38 in a loss to Liberty, but I like the buy-low spot. Flames quarterback Malik Willis torched this defense for 109 yards on the ground last Saturday, which should be a wake-up call with Miami's D'Eriq King (105 rushing yards last week) coming to town.
The market's expecting a barn burner, but this total is a tad too high for my liking.
Pick: Under 68
Arkansas @ Florida (-17.5, 60), 7 p.m. ET
Do you know how nauseating it is to bet a Florida under, only to watch Kyle Trask sling dimes around the yard? Extremely nauseating, I know, but let's look at the big picture.
Arkansas isn't going to play a shootout. Florida can shatter all kinds of totals, but its counterpart needs to contribute. I just don't think the Razorbacks can.
Florida's defense has been tested plenty this season, having already faced Texas A&M (No. 12 in OSP+), Ole Miss (No. 14), and Georgia (No. 42). Arkansas' offense is a serious step down, averaging an even 5 yards per play and ranking No. 82 in OSP+.
This is a week where the Gators' defense gets back on track.
Pick: Under 60
Northwestern @ Purdue (+3, 51), 7:30 p.m. ET
I like the home 'dog here.
Purdue has been a solid bet in this role, covering each of the last four. The Boilermakers are 19-7 against the spread the previous 26 as underdogs, and they're 5-0 ATS the last five versus teams with winning records.
Northwestern, meanwhile, is allowing just 4.4 yards per play this season, but can a Wildcats offense averaging just 4.9 score enough in a road matchup?
There's not much separating these teams. Don't be shocked if there's an upset in West Lafayette.
Pick: Purdue +3
2020 betting record: 18-16
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.