CFB bad line of the week: Good value on Minnesota vs. ordinary Iowa
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Last week's pick for bad line of the week was Georgia -3.5. The Bulldogs lost by 16. The good news: We probably can't do worse in Week 11.
Here's the spread that has us scratching our heads this week.
Bad line of the week: Iowa -3.5 (@ Minnesota)
I'm jumping on Minnesota's bandwagon for the second time in four weeks when the Golden Gophers host Iowa on Friday. Minnesota wasn't remotely close to coming through for us against Michigan in Week 8, but the price here is too good to pass up.
What has Iowa even done to deserve laying chalk on the road? The Hawkeyes were overachievers last season, and I didn't like much about them coming into the year. So far, their resume is vanilla, with a win over Michigan State and losses against Northwestern and a Purdue squad without Rondale Moore.
Minnesota is off to an underwhelming 1-2 start. The defeat to Michigan looks worse by the week, but the loss to Maryland - which beat Penn State as a 27-point 'dog last Saturday - is starting to look better. The Golden Gophers also finally picked up a confidence boost in Week 10 with a 27-point road win over Illinois, hanging 41 on the Fighting Illini. The offense should continue to find success against the Hawkeyes.
Iowa's inside the top 20 nationally in most defensive categories so far, but that's more a result of the schedule than the unit's overall outlook. The Hawkeyes have yet to face a quarterback-receiver tandem like Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who hooked up six times for 98 yards against Iowa in 2019.
The Hawkeyes aren't likely to intimidate Minnesota when they have the ball. Quarterback Spencer Petras has drawn mixed reviews so far, posting just a 58.9 QBR with two touchdowns against three picks.
Iowa beat Minnesota by four last year, but the Golden Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes by 141 yards on the road. This is a patented revenge spot for head coach P.J. Fleck, who has yet to pull off an upset after recording three last year. Under Fleck, Minnesota is 7-3 against the spread as an underdog and has been a great bet in conference play, covering nine of the last 13 against Big Ten opposition.
The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, are just 1-5 ATS over their last six after a win by 20 or more and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus the Big Ten.
Getting at least three here with the 'dog is crucial, but to get the hook on top of it is just stealing. Take the +3.5 with Minnesota.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.