CFB Week 7 betting trends: Play the Pitt-Miami under
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We dished out a handful of winners in last week's trends segment, including Clemson -14 over Miami and Ole Miss +24 against Alabama.
If you plan to incorporate more trends into your Week 7 handicapping, don't do so without considering these angles.
Here's what stands out for Saturday's action:
Cincinnati trending under in conference play
The last time Cincinnati went over the total? Week 9 of last season. The Bearcats are 8-1 to the under since, with the average combined score clocking in at just 46.1 points per game.
The total against Tulsa is a shade lower than that at 44. But this is an AAC tilt, so Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell is bound to dial up a low-scoring game - the Bearcats are on a perfect 6-0 run to the under against conference opponents.
Don't be surprised if these teams have trouble putting points on the board Saturday.
Trend play: Under 44
Navy will score vs. East Carolina
If Navy's an underdog, it's an automatic look to the over. The Midshipmen have cashed each of the last seven totals when catching points:
| Opponent | Score | O/U? |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 31-29 | Over |
| Tulane | 27-24 | Over |
| BYU | 55-3 | Over |
| Notre Dame | 52-20 | Over |
| Tulsa | 45-17 | Over |
| Air Force | 34-25 | Over |
| Memphis | 35-23 | Over |
Navy should have plenty of success Saturday against an East Carolina defense allowing 6.4 yards per play this season.
Trend play: Over 59.5
Pitt + road 'dog = under
Pitt is one of the toughest teams to trust when you need points. Head coach Pat Narduzzi wants to play a slow-paced game and rely on his defense, which usually suppresses scoring. Expect just that against Miami.
It's generally a good idea to play Pittsburgh under the total whenever the Panthers are road underdogs. They've hit 11 of the last 12 in this situation.
Not to be outdone, the Hurricanes are 12-4 to the under the last 16 against teams with winning records.
Trend play: Under 48.5
UAB crushing it at home
UAB doesn't get enough credit. Head coach Bill Clark led the charge in the program's reinstatement in 2014 and hasn't looked back.
The Blazers have quietly been one of the best bets over the last few seasons. Clark is a scorching hot 16-5-1 ATS the last 22 at home and 12-5-1 ATS the last 18 as a home favorite.
UAB could very well improve those records against a Western Kentucky team that has yet to cover a game in 2020.
Trend play: UAB -14
Back Duke as a 'dog
Duke head coach David Cutcliffe is going down swinging this season. His current roster pales in comparison to the talent he's had in the past, but the longtime head coach still has some juice.
And it wouldn't be surprising if he pulls off his first upset of the 2020 season in Week 7.
We recommended selling high on North Carolina State in our examination of the bad line of the week. Not only are the Wolfpack getting outgained weekly, but Duke also plays more freely when getting points. Cutcliffe and Co. are currently on a 31-15-1 run ATS when they're underdogs, and they have as good a chance as any to win this one outright.
Trend play: Duke +4.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.