Oklahoma win total preview: Sooners have competition in Big 12
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The Oklahoma Sooners are the team to beat in the Big 12? You don't say.
Head coach Lincoln Riley hasn't missed a beat since taking over for Bob Stoops, leading the program to three College Football Playoff appearances in as many years. Following yet another conference title in 2019, it's not surprising Oklahoma is once again the favorite to win the Big 12.
Will the Sooners dominate the regular season and get back to the playoff? Let's dive into their win total of 10.5, courtesy of theScore Bet.
Oklahoma - Over/Under 10.5 wins
Over: +110
Under: -130
A look back
How do you follow back-to-back Heisman-winning quarterbacks? By bringing in a former national champion, of course.
Alabama grad transfer Jalen Hurts effortlessly led the show in 2019, registering more than 5,000 yards of offense with 52 total touchdowns. He helped Oklahoma rank No. 7 in the country in points per game.
As is often the case, the program's defense was its Achilles' heel. After Oklahoma's defense finished as a middle-of-the-road unit during the regular season, LSU lit up the Sooners for 63 points in the College Football Playoff semis.
All in all, Oklahoma turned in a solid 2019 season to post its third straight 12-2 record. Second-order wins - which account for luck - weren't too tough on the Sooners, either, pegging them for 11.3 expected victories.
Returning production
The returning production on offense is lacking, but that hasn't fazed the Sooners in the past.
After entering last season ranked 109th in the country in offensive returning production, Oklahoma averaged an even 40 points per game. The Sooners are marginally better off this time around (No. 103 in offensive returning production), but they'll be breaking in a new quarterback in Spencer Rattler.
Riley's system should ensure the team's wide receivers produce some gaudy numbers. The obvious candidates to lead the 2020 corps are Charleston Rambo (43 catches, 745 yards, and five touchdowns in 2019), and sophomores Trejan Bridges and Theo Wease.
The good news for a spotty Oklahoma defense: 70% of last year's unit returns. That said, some consistency would be extremely helpful.
Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Missouri State |
| 2 | vs. Tennessee |
| 3 | Bye |
| 4 | @ Army |
| 5 | vs. Baylor |
| 6 | vs. Texas |
| 7 | @ Iowa State |
| 8 | vs. Oklahoma State |
| 9 | @ TCU |
| 10 | @ West Virginia |
| 11 | vs. Kansas State |
| 12 | vs. Kansas |
| 13 | @ Texas Tech |
Oklahoma owns the sixth-toughest schedule in the Big 12 and is No. 32 nationally in strength of schedule.
Army gave the Sooners fits two years ago, but Oklahoma's defense will have extra time to prepare for the triple option. Kansas State and Baylor could be in for down years, while Texas Tech and West Virginia should both improve. Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and TCU will be threats.
Best bet
Rattler has some tough shoes to fill, as do the members of his receiving corps. Riley's offenses have always had an experienced, go-to option on the outside, whether it be Marquise Brown or CeeDee Lamb. There's certainly enough depth for somebody to develop into a true No. 1, but Oklahoma currently lacks a game-breaking threat.
The gap between Oklahoma and the rest of the Big 12 is also narrower than usual. Texas and Iowa State are both legit, while others in the conference were extremely unlucky in 2019.
Marking down Riley for fewer than 12 wins - let alone 11 - feels weird, but I don't have any other choice. This will be his "worst" team yet, and one that will struggle to dominate.
Pick: Under 10.5
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.