College football Week 13 underdog plays: Texas in perfect upset spot
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Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
After a perfect run in Week 11, we went 2-1 last week with a brutal bad beat in Minnesota's loss to Iowa. Will the Hawkeyes foil us again? Here are our best bets for Week 13.
Illinois (+15) at Iowa
Opening line: Iowa -14
There's plenty to like about Iowa in this spot: The Hawkeyes are 5-2 against the spread as favorites this year and 8-3 ATS as home chalk dating back to last season. Bettors are certainly buying it, taking Iowa from -12 at some shops to -15 as of Thursday.
But beware the letdown after the Hawkeyes' win over then-No. 8 Minnesota. In his time at Iowa, Kirk Ferentz is 1-4 ATS after beating top-10 teams, with just one win by more than five points. It's not just him; home favorites coming off wins over top-10 teams are 6-12-1 ATS since 2017.
Illinois is coming off its bye week and rides a five-game ATS winning streak into Kinnick Stadium, including three straight outright wins as an underdog. If the Hawkeyes show any signs of a hangover after last week, the Fighting Illini could make them pay.
Tulane (+6) vs. UCF
Opening line: UCF -6
UCF ripped off 25 consecutive regular-season wins before its stunning loss to Pittsburgh in Week 4. Since then, the Knights are 4-3 straight up and 1-6 ATS, firmly out of contention for a high-profile bowl berth after entering the year with title aspirations.
The nadir came last week in an outright loss to 16-point underdog Tulsa, which was 2-7 before Friday's win. The Knights now have to get up for a trip to face Tulane, which is 7-3 ATS on the year and 5-0 ATS at home.
Under coach Willie Fritz, the Green Wave are 18-11 ATS after a defeat, including 3-0 ATS this season. Last week's tight loss at Temple should give Tulane all the motivation it needs against a UCF team that could use some oomph. An outright win for the home 'dog is in play.
Texas (+5.5) at No. 14 Baylor
Opening line: Baylor -5.5
Texas coach Tom Herman thrives when his back is against the wall, and this could be a spot for another quintessential Herman special.
Since Herman took over in 2017, the Longhorns are 10-4 ATS as underdogs and 8-5 ATS when coming off a loss, as they are after losing by two points at Iowa State (-5) a week ago. For his career, Herman is 7-2 ATS when his team is unranked and facing a ranked opponent. He's also 11-6-2 ATS against one-loss teams.
Baylor coach Matt Rhule is an underdog whiz, too, but he's 2-8 ATS in his last 10 as a home favorite. His Bears suffered their first loss a week ago against Oklahoma, and teams suffering their first defeat in Week 10 or later are 7-15-1 ATS in their next game. Texas is the play here in a potential letdown spot for Baylor.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.