College football Week 12 best bets

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Every Friday during the college football season, theScore's sports betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each member has been given a fictitious $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the season. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

All lines are courtesy of theScore Bet.

Alex Kolodziej ($1,123)

Season record: 15-11-1, +123

Southern Miss at UTSA

Total: 52

I missed this one earlier in the week because on paper it’s ugly, just like every game involving UTSA. But it piqued my interest and I’m circling back.

I’m convinced that if quarterback Tyler Johnston wasn't ruled out last week, it would have been a decent spot to take UAB +6 at Southern Miss. Johnston loves to take shots deep, and he could have opened things up against a Golden Eagles defense that was allowing the most yards per completion in the entire nation entering Week 11.

But Johnson didn’t play, and the UAB offense didn’t score a single point. That’s essentially your cheat sheet for playing Southern Miss totals the rest of the year: Go over against passing offenses, and under against rushing-based units.

UTSA? Nope, no passing offense there. The Roadrunners are No. 119 in the country in yards per game through the air and No. 125 in yards per attempt. The team's ground game ranks in the top half of the country in yards per game, but that’s going to play right into the hands of a Southern Miss defense that’s No. 15 in stopping the run.

Meanwhile, UTSA's run defense is weak, but Southern Miss' offense ranks No. 113 in rushing yards per game and No. 98 in yards per carry. Take the under in this one.

Pick: Under 52 ($40)

Alex Moretto ($867)

Season record: 10-10-1, -$134

Minnesota at Iowa (-3)

I was on Minnesota a week ago against Penn State, and throughout the game I was thinking about how great it will be to fade the Golden Gophers this week.

Going into Kinnick Stadium to face Iowa's defense that ranks ninth in efficiency will be the toughest test so far in 2019 for Minnesota's offense. The Hawkeyes don't allow big plays and they don't turn the ball over on offense - two crucial weaknesses that led to Penn State losing at TCF Bank Stadium last weekend.

This is a prime letdown spot for Minnesota. The last time the Golden Gophers won at Kinnick Stadium was in 1999. They'll lose a ninth straight game there this weekend.

Pick: Iowa -3 ($50)

Syracuse at Duke (-10)

Duke has topped 40 points in each of its three games against defenses ranked outside the top 60 in efficiency. Syracuse's defense sits 82nd and is 126th out of 130 Division I schools in yards allowed per game.

The Orange's sputtering offense also likely won't experience much success against the Blue Devils' 25th-ranked defense. Syracuse has been miserable on the road, and that's going to continue here in a game that could be decided by halftime.

Pick: Duke -10 ($50)

C Jackson Cowart ($435)

Season record: 5-18-1, -$565

Minnesota at Iowa (-3)

The jinx was in full effect last week when I openly picked a loser that turned out to be a winner. All I know is this week I'm picking Minnesota, a team that's still undervalued despite a statement win over then-No. 4 Penn State in Week 11.

A week after scoring 52 vs. Maryland, the Golden Gophers dropped 31 on the Nittany Lions' top-five scoring defense, and they now face an Iowa squad that hasn't topped 26 points since Week 5. The Hawkeyes have lost three straight against winning teams, while Minnesota is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog under head coach P.J. Fleck.

I'm all in on the road 'dog.

Pick: Minnesota +3 ($55), Minnesota +130 ($50)

Thomas Casale ($364)

Season record: 7-14-1, -$636

Texas at Iowa State (-7)

I was going to break down all my picks this week, but let's be honest, do you really care? Seriously, I'm a disgraceful 7-14 on the season.

Who gives a darn what I have to say? It's gotten to the point that every time I start writing up a pick, I think about the classic like from Joe Pesci in the movie "My Cousin Vinny":

So, Texas head coach Tom Herman is 15-3 ATS as an underdog with 11 outright upsets during his coaching career. Iowa State, meanwhile, is coming off an emotional loss at Oklahoma when the Cyclones failed on a two-point conversion attempt to win the game. Texas is one of my favorite plays of the year, making it a double fade.

Pick: Texas +7 ($75)

USC (-6.5) at Cal

Cal plays better as a 'dog than the team does as a favorite, and the Golden Bears' offense received a boost last week with the return of starting quarterback Devon Modster.

USC is 10-29 ATS over its last 39 games as a road favorite coming off a win. Cal keeps it close.

Pick: Cal +6.5 ($75)

LSU (-21.5) at Ole Miss

This is an awful spot for LSU, with the Tigers coming off the huge win over Alabama and laying three touchdowns on the road to a pesky Ole Miss team. The Rebels have covered five of their last six games. That trend will continue on Saturday, which is good news for LSU fans.

Pick: Ole Miss +21.5 ($75)