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Pac-12 betting preview and predictions

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The Pac-12 is weird.

The balance of power seems to shift more frequently than in any other Power Five conference, and bettors who dial in for a midnight snack of #Pac12afterdark are typically subjected to sheer mayhem.

While the Pac-12 might be the king of quirkiness, the overall product hasn't been very successful recently, as conference teams have missed the College Football Playoff the last two seasons.

Nonetheless, here's our best bet, top value pick, and play to avoid for arguably the most entertaining conference in America.

Team Win Total Pac-12 odds
Washington 9.5 (-120) 3-1
Oregon 8.5 (-160) 3-1
Utah 9 (-130) 3-1
Washington State 8 (-110) 8-1
USC 7 (-120) 8-1
UCLA 6.5 (+120) 14-1
Stanford 7 (+100)  18-1
Arizona 6.5 (+100) 30-1
Arizona State 6.5 (-120) 30-1
California 5.5 (-110) 50-1
Colorado 4 (+100) 100-1
Oregon State 2.5 (-150) 300-1

Best bet - Washington State Under 8 (-110)

Last season seemed like a good time to sell on Washington State.

The Cougars were coming off a 9-4 campaign in 2017, with three of those wins earned by three points or less. Head coach Mike Leach was rumored to be bailing for Tennessee before that fell through. Worse, only 55 percent of the team's starters were returning, and Washington State was slated to bring in a grad transfer from ECU - someone named Gardner Minshew - to play quarterback.

Then all Wazzu did was register an 11-win season. Their win total under of 6.5? It wasn't much fun.

Despite Leach's tendency to wring out plenty of value from his rosters, I'm still bearish on the Cougs for 2019, largely due to their schedule. The team's road slate is hellish, featuring Oregon, Utah, Washington, Cal, and Arizona State away from Pullman. Washington State will also play an improved UCLA squad, a dangerous Houston team, and gritty Stanford.

I'll bet the Cougars can't burn me in consecutive years.

Value play - USC to win the Pac-12 (8-1)

There's no value in the three-headed monster atop the conference. Either the prices are just about right (Oregon and Utah) or a team is priced too short (Washington).

You're not going to find a squad in the Pac-12 - or perhaps the entire nation - with a lower floor and higher ceiling than USC. S&P+ projects 6.5 wins for the Trojans in 2019, though a field goal could decide five games on their schedule.

With no play on the Pac-12's three 3-1 teams - and I'm not willing to take a flier on a long shot - USC is certainly in the mix here if the team gets lucky along the way.

Bet to avoid - Colorado Over 4 (+100)

Colorado finding lightning in a bottle three years ago might still be in the running for the weirdest single-team apex in recent memory.

After racking up 10 combined wins over three seasons under then-head coach Mike MacIntyre, the Buffaloes matched that total en route to appearing in the Pac-12 title game in 2016. Then the team proceeded to fall back down to earth in 2017 and 2018, posting back-to-back five-win seasons and firing its head coach in the process.

With MacIntyre out, Colorado decided to dip into SEC waters and lure Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker west to become the program's new head coach. I don't love the hire, especially not in the first year after MacIntyre left the talent cupboard nearly empty.

The Buffaloes are only favored in two games, according to S&P+, and outside of star receiver Laviska Shenault they don't field any game-breaking talent that would sway me to trust them.

This is a small number on a team that's surpassed this total in each of the last three seasons. But it's still buyer beware time on Colorado in 2019.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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