SEC win totals and best bets

Three teams are projected to win 11 or more games entering the 2019 college football season. The SEC has two of them in Alabama and Georgia, with defending national champions Clemson being the other. Those three programs also have the shortest odds to win the College Football Playoff.

Alabama has won four of the last seven national championships and comes in tied with Clemson as the +225 favorite. Georgia is the third betting favorite at +600. The Bulldogs might have been going for their third straight national title if they held their fourth-quarter lead over Alabama.

While the SEC has a few serious title contenders, the conference also has teams expected to be pretty bad in 2019, including Ole Miss. The Rebels have the lowest win total in the SEC at 4.5 after finishing a disappointing 5-7 last season and returning just three starters from an offense that racked up 510 yards per game.

The complete list of SEC win totals are below:

(Odds courtesy: Caesars Sportsbook)

Best Bets

LSU Over 9 (+130)

LSU has 15 starters returning from the 10-win team to go along with a top-five recruiting class. The schedule is tough as always, but the pieces are in place to make a run at the national title.

The Tigers' offensive line is among the country's most experienced and eight starters are returning to what is projected to be one of the SEC's top defenses. How seriously the Tigers challenge Alabama in the SEC West will come down to quarterback Joe Burrow, who transferred to LSU late last spring and became the first Tigers quarterback to throw for more than 2,500 yards and rush for over 350 yards in the same season. Bigger things are expected from Burrow in his second year after Joe Brady was hired away from the Saints to be the passing game coordinator.

LSU's schedule is no joke, with games versus Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. Even a loss at the Crimson Tide likely won't keep LSU out of the College Football Playoff if the school runs the table and wins the rest of its games. I expect Burrow to be even better in his second season with a more open passing attack. I'm going with over nine wins for LSU and also grabbing the Tigers at 20-1 to win the national championship.

Auburn Under 8 (+110)

I actually like this Auburn team, especially the Tigers' defense. What I don't like is that they will face the fourth-toughest schedule in the country with an unproven quarterback.

Auburn opens the season against Oregon in Arlington, Texas, and things get tougher from there. The Tigers SEC slate includes Florida, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Auburn is the only school to face what is projected to be the top four teams in the conference. The Tigers will likely start Malik Willis at quarterback, who has thrown just 14 passes in his college career. Auburn could turn to redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood or five-star recruit Bo Nix, but it will be a challenge for any young quarterback to produce nine wins against that schedule.

The Tigers will feature one of the nation's top defenses, but unless a quarterback steps up to lead the offense, it will be a long year for Gus Malzahn and Co. S&P+ projects 7.8 wins for Auburn. Eight wins seem like the ceiling for this team.

Arkansas Over 5.5 (+120)

You may not be rushing to the window to bet on a team that went 0-8 in the SEC and 2-10 overall last season, but the Razorbacks could be the conference's surprise team in 2019.

Chad Morris is one of the bright young coaches in college football. He inherited a mess at Arkansas but turning the program around is a matter of when, not if, and he has the pieces to begin that ascension this year. Morris brings in one of the conference's best recruiting classes and quarterback Ben Hicks, who he previously coached when the two were at SMU. The defense was a mitigated disaster in Morris' first year but the presence of stud defensive tackles McTelvin Agim and T.J. Smith give hope that the Hogs can cut down the 34.8 points per game they allowed last season.

Scheduling plays a key role when identifying teams that could improve from the previous year. If Arkansas was given Auburn's nightmare schedule, there's no way the Hogs would go over their win total. However, that's not the case, as Arkansas' first four games are against Portland State, Ole Miss, Colorado State, and San Jose State. Toss in a Nov. 9 home game versus Western Kentucky and it's not inconceivable that Arkansas could go 5-0 in those matchups.

Oddsmakers seem to believe Arkansas will improve, too. Despite not winning an SEC game in 2018, Caesars set the Hogs' win total the same as South Carolina and higher than Vanderbilt, two bowl teams from a year ago. Not many people are talking about them, but they're a sleeper pick to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid out of the conference.