Top 10 betting plays for Week 12 of the college football season
After digging through some situational spots and betting nuggets for Week 12, we're ready for Saturday's card.
Be sure to shop around for the best numbers should you choose to tail (or fade).
Top Plays
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Wager: Mississippi State -21.5
Mississippi State is the SEC's underachiever this season. Despite hopes that the Bulldogs could challenge Alabama and Georgia, they enter Week 12 with four losses. Their glaring weakness has been an offense that ranks 89th nationally, averaging just 26.2 points per game. But S&P+ lists Mississippi State in the top half of the country in offense despite the struggles, and there's a good reason: The schedule has been rough.
The Bulldogs have played four S&P+ defenses ranked in the top 20 and six in the top 35 this season. Enter Arkansas, ranked No. 76 - the weakest defense Mississippi State's seen since it hung 56 points on Louisiana-Lafayette in Week 3.
Saturday also marks the Razorbacks' first road game since Week 5, and they're coming off a tough home loss to LSU. Mississippi State's had a tough time winning in SEC play, let alone winning big, but Week 12 presents a golden opportunity for a blowout victory.
Utah at Colorado
Wager: Colorado +7
Utah came through last weekend at home against Oregon despite being down starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Jason Shelley filled in nicely with an 18-for-31 passing line and 262 yards, while Armand Shyne ran for 174 yards on 26 carries. There's no denying the Utes have a great team.
After a 31-7 loss to Washington State, Saturday is Colorado's second shot at upending a top-tier opponent. The Buffaloes' offense should finally be healthy, with wide receiver Laviska Shenault active last week and fellow wide receivers Jay MacIntyre and K.D. Nixon working their way back after missing the Washington State game.
Colorado's also one win away from reaching a bowl. We'll take the touchdown in Boulder.
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Wager: Under 57
Texas Tech's defense has improved over the years as head coach Kliff Kingsbury works to balance out the team's offense-heavy identity. A glance at this year's defensive stats suggests he's failing, but the Red Raiders' struggles are justified - they've faced offenses that currently rank No. 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 24 by S&P+ metrics. Over those games, Texas Tech allowed an average of 41 points. Against the three other teams on the schedule (offenses ranked No. 57, 96, 119), they allowed an average of 23.3. Kansas State is currently ranked 102nd, and with the winds in Manhattan on Saturday, we think this will be a low-scoring affair.
Pitt at Wake Forest
Wager: Over 60.5
Pitt finally has the offense rolling, and that bodes well against a Wake Forest defense that threw the kitchen sink at NC State last Thursday in a huge upset win. A Panthers offense that averaged 43 points in its last three games gets a chance to feast on the nation's No. 111 scoring defense. Toss in the Demon Deacons' up-tempo offense and this number is absolutely in range.
Extra Points
Oregon State at Washington
Recommended Pick: Washington -33.5
Oregon State just got pummeled by a physical Stanford team and now has to turn around and do it again against an even better opponent. Washington will be able to do whatever it wants offensively, and the Huskies' defense - one of the country's best at stopping explosive plays - should hold firm against the Beavers in Oregon State's second straight road game (and third in four weeks).
Missouri at Tennessee
Recommended Picks: Missouri -6 and Under 57.5
We'll continue to fade Tennessee's offense, as we did in the Week 10 under against Charlotte (14-3 final).
Tennessee took care of an overrated Kentucky team in its own hangover spot last week but could be in for a letdown against a vastly improved Missouri team.
Kansas at Oklahoma
Recommended Pick: Under 69
Betting an Oklahoma under is playing with fire, yes, but that's still a huge number in a game involving Kansas' offense.
Northwestern at Minnesota
Recommended Pick: Minnesota -2
It's not recommended to play a side that has lost this much value - Minnesota was getting points earlier in the week - but the Golden Gophers are now the favorites for a sensible reason.
Northwestern and Minnesota enter this matchup with very different levels of motivation. The Wildcats clinched a berth in the Big Ten title game last weekend with a win over Iowa; the Golden Gophers are one win away from bowl eligibility and a date with Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium will be their final shot if they don't come through Saturday. Minnesota's also been no slouch at home this season, netting two upset wins and another over mid-major darling Fresno State.
Tulsa at Navy
Recommended Pick: Tulsa +6
Navy shouldn't be giving six points to any team in the country, let alone one that's mostly played well defensively on the road this season.
Top plays: 29-22-1 (56.9 percent)
Overall plays: 57-52-1 (52.3 percent)
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.