It’s hard to believe it’s Week 9 already. But here we are, set for another slate of potential college football chaos.
Top 5 games to watch
5. No. 2 Clemson @ Florida State (12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Not too long ago, Clemson-FSU was the premier non-traditional rivalry in all of college football.
Much has changed.
Not really for the Tigers, who are still dominant. But the Seminoles are in the midst of a long-term build. How much of a fight can they put up Saturday against one of the sport's powerhouses?
I’ll give FSU a shot to keep this thing close into the third quarter. Rivalry games are funky. This is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence's first start in a truly hostile road environment and FSU has a jarringly good defense, led by the nation's top edge rusher, Brian Burns. Emotion and a strong pass rush can do an awful lot to keep you in games.
Here’s the thing, though: Clemson’s defense is simply better. And its offense blows anything FSU can cobble together at this juncture out of the water.
This week's early slate is light, so this uniform/brand matchup alone should hold your attention until we get to the afternoon's tastier treats. Expect it to be close heading into the second half until the Tigers kick it into cruise control.
4. No. 12 Kentucky @ Missouri (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Wait, Missouri is favored over Kentucky? Hold on. Let me gather my breath. I'll repeat again: Missouri is favored over Kentucky.
Sure, Mizzou's at home. Yes, you’ve heard of Drew Lock. But those factors mask a much more important one: This team isn't good.
For example, here are Lock's splits against Power 5 and non-Power 5 opponents:
Almost all of Lock’s gaudy production - and by extension Mizzou’s offense - has been empty calories. The unit racks up big yardage totals and points against minnows, but its pace-and-space isolation style falls apart against proper defenses. You can’t play space football if your athletes are often inferior.
I’m not saying Mizzou has no chance. Kentucky has its own problems. As noted in my midseason grades piece, the Wildcats had an almighty question to answer at quarterback, and Mark Stoops is still struggling with it.
Sophomore transfer Terry Wilson has been the guy this season. He’s an electric athlete who opens up the run game, but he can’t throw the ball. By contrast, Gunnar Hoak (great name) can throw the ball, but he limits the ground attack.
So, what do the Wildcats value and (as the cliche goes) who do they want to be? They have the best offensive line in the SEC outside of Tuscaloosa, which should be good enough to kick-start the running game without the threat of Wilson’s legs. But is Stoops willing to take that risk amid such an excellent season?
Regardless of who lines up at quarterback, Kentucky should be favored this weekend. The team's very elite defense ranks fourth in S&P+, while only LSU and Alabama have created more negative plays in the SEC this season.
Despite the betting line, the Wildcats should feast.
3. No. 14 Washington State @ No. 24 Stanford (7 p.m. ET, PAC-12 Network)
We'll find out what Washington State's made of on Saturday night.
This is a classic letdown spot for Mike Leach's team, which is heading to The Farm after an emotional week: Gameday. Pullman. Oregon. Big win.
But if anything can keep the juices flowing, it’s the chance to stick it to Stanford - a program whose every morsel is antithetical to the WSU-Leach way.
It won’t be easy. True, Stanford’s offense has struggled. And under Tracy Claeys, Washington State’s defense is much improved, at least by its own sloppy standards (63rd in defensive S&P!).
The key to this matchup is transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew, who's been all sorts of awesome since he arrived in Pullman. He's thrown 23 touchdowns to six interceptions while averaging more than 10 yards per throw and completing a sliver below 70 percent of his passes. How do you stop that?
You don’t - and that’s why the Cougars rank 16th in offensive S&P+.
Stanford’s best chance is to bamboozle Minshew into mistakes. He’s prone to a couple of wonky plays a game. He doesn’t see dropping linebackers all too well. He'll force some throws along the sideline.
Still, Leach has a real chance to clinch the PAC-12 North this season. He even has an outside shot at crashing the playoff party. To do so, his team must view its Oregon win as the starting point - not the peak.
2. No. 18 Iowa @ No. 17 Penn State (3:30 ET, ESPN)
I dare you to find a better uniform matchup in college football. You can’t, and you won’t.
If that’s not enough, we should get a tight, exciting football game. Iowa’s defense is legit. It has serious speed on the back end, linebackers who live in the opponent's backfield, and a gang of creatures up front whose measurables read more like a science experiment than a college football roster.
Pass-rusher Anthony Nelson is 6-7, 217. I didn’t know they made people that size. Good luck blocking him. And he might be the third-best pass-rusher on his own defensive line. Gulp.
With all of those assets, Iowa limits explosive plays better than any other defense in the country. And those plays are the lifeblood of Penn State’s vertical-strike offense.
That means Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley will need to be at his off-script best to get anything going. That's especially so because his offensive line has struggled, there are discussions about switching up the running back rotation, and OC Ricky Rahne looks set to plug freshmen into the much-maligned receiving corps.
On the other side, Penn State’s defense is coming, but it’s not there yet. Give it another season.
Unfortunately, that won’t help on Saturday, Iowa should go into Happy Valley and get a win. But I never bet against McSorely Magic.
1. No. 9 Florida vs. No. 7 Georgia (3:30 ET, CBS)
Get your second screen ready - you're going to need it. The Gators and Bulldogs will be involved in a good old-fashioned defensive slugfest in Jacksonville.
Nothing says "Cocktail Party" like a pair of suffocating defenses built atop front-sevens that have ravaged all comers. Moving the ball is going to be tough.
This game will be pretty simple: Can Georgia pop one or two big plays against Florida’s boom-or-bust defensive style? If not, the Gators will eke it out.
Player to Watch
Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State (vs. Texas Tech)
Purdymania has officially reached a fever pitch. Iowa State’s true freshman quarterback is simply one of the most gifted, enthralling throwers in the nation.
Purdy marries a swashbuckling, reckless style with the class and guile of a veteran. There’s a beautiful naivety to some of his throws, as though he hasn’t yet learned why it’s not a great idea to throw toward the spinning safety. Or, you know, to not use improper stick-slide-climb mechanics before still attempting to split double coverage 30 yards away:
But Purdy completes it. Then he moves on to the next play, and is happy to do it all over again. What were you worried about?
Purdy also already understands how to alter his trajectories and velocities to different portions of the field against specific coverages. He can play the part of an advanced thrower, even when he dresses it up with a lot of pizzazz. You can’t do it any better than this:
Remind me again why this guy was the 841st-ranked player in the country?
It’s not as though he's athletically limited, either. Purdy's a marvel off-platform, as he can shape his body in awkward ways and still deliver an accurate ball:
He has that moxie - that it factor - that the very best in college football posses. He finds a way to make plays:
As seen above, Purdy even offers just enough with his legs to help open up the run game. Against Texas Tech, he might throw for 500 yards and add 50 more on the ground.
What an excellent find by Matt Campbell and his staff.
Coach who needs a win
Clay Helton, USC (vs. Arizona State)
Something doesn’t feel right with Clay Helton’s USC side. It has that Jim McElwain-Florida stench. Sure, there've been early wins and the occasional "things are headed in the right direction" puff piece, but the jigsaw simply isn’t coming together.
Up next, a loss to a frisky Arizona State side should officially start the countdown clock on Helton’s tenure.
This is the last go-round for the branches of the Pete Carroll tree. The last two - Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian - both ended in disaster for a variety of reasons. Helton’s run started out with a Rose Bowl win, but USC hasn't offered much since then. The team didn’t even cash in on Sam Darnold’s second season.
Defenders will say Helton has a freshman at quarterback this season, and that’s true. But watch the Trojans closely, and you’ll see their issues run much deeper.