The top 10 bets for Week 4 of the college football season
There's a great "Rocky IV" montage in which Sylvester Stallone is training somewhere off the coast of Siberia, and I've watched it no fewer than 20 times this week in preparation for Week 4 of college football. I can't lie - it's been tough sledding over the last two weeks, and I'm itching to reverse course in a hurry to spark the morale.
So far, I've been crushed by Arkansas over bets and undervalued mid-major teams that hate covering as short road underdogs. If there's any caveat, it's still extremely early in the season, so continue to manage your bankroll and play it as a marathon. The 90-game winning streak begins this Saturday, so feel free to use these tips and insights to your liking. As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers before hitting "submit."
Top Plays
Nevada at Toledo
Pick: Toledo -10
Unless there's some sort of hangover effect, Toledo's in a nice spot to get back on track after being whipped at home by Miami. It was the first home loss in roughly two calendar years for the Rockets.
Toledo will host a Nevada Wolf Pack team whose travel schedule to start the season has been all out of whack. Nevada opened the year at home with a win over Portland State, flew out to Tennessee to meet Vanderbilt for an early start and was crushed by 31, came back home to squeak out a win against lowly Oregon State, and will now face Toledo in the Eastern time zone, which will feel like a 9 a.m. start for the body clocks.
Eastern Michigan at San Diego State
Pick: Eastern Michigan +12
The Aztecs are coming off a big win over Arizona State at home and have a road game at Boise State on deck for Week 5. Sandwiched in the middle is an Eastern Michigan team that has thrived in the underdog role with head coach Chris Creighton, covering 11 of the last 12 on the road.
The sandwich spot is a tricky one. If you went back and researched every single one of these in history, I doubt there'd be any data to back it up as a relevant angle.
That being said, I think San Diego State is giving too many points in the first place. The team is still without starting quarterback Christian Chapman, who's dealing with a knee injury suffered in Week 2. It might take a late kick for the Eagles, but I'll take the double digits here.
Ohio at Cincinnati
Pick: Ohio +8
Saturday against Ohio is an ideal spot to sell high on an overachiever like Cincinnati, and to perhaps buy low on a Bobcats team that hasn't looked all that great to start the year.
The Bearcats are undefeated, but the wins haven't exactly come against elite competition. In Week 1, Cincinnati went on the road and beat UCLA, which is now 0-3 with a minus-61 point differential. The Bearcats then won as a short underdog the following week against an 0-3 Miami (OH) team in wet conditions, before taking care of lowly Alabama A&M in a 63-7 rout.
Ohio still hasn't shown much this season, edging Howard by six as a 30.5-point favorite before suffering a 45-31 loss to Virginia. But if we're treating teams like assets, Week 4 is an opportune time to sell Cincinnati.
Arizona at Oregon State
Pick: Arizona -6
There are two key questions regarding Arizona's "unacceptable" 0-2 start: Does the opening-week loss to BYU - which beat Wisconsin at Camp Randall last weekend - look all that bad anymore? And did we discredit the Wildcats too much after a 45-18 loss to a good Houston team in what felt like a 9 a.m. kickoff for Arizona?
Maybe - just maybe - we jumped the gun on the Wildcats.
Whether we did or not, I'll take them laying less than a touchdown against a team of Oregon State's caliber.
North Texas at Liberty
Pick: Over 69
I'm just rotting away, waiting for someone to expose North Texas' defense.
SMU? That offense forgot how to be explosive.
Incarnate Word? Thanks for coming out.
Arkansas? You know there are plays in the book other than 3-yard running back dives and overthrown one-man fly routes, right?
Meanwhile, Liberty is new to the FBS, but I already love this team. The Flames chuck the ball downfield and go up-tempo - two things every new FBS program should do to win over the hearts of casual bettors.
Liberty is also averaging 7.4 yards per play through its first two games, which pairs nicely with North Texas' top-five passing attack.
Give me Liberty (over), or give me death.
Extra Points
Western Michigan at Georgia State
Pick: Under 63
Last Friday's 59-22 loss against Memphis was my first real look at Georgia State. The main takeaway: The Panthers' offensive playbook is short on creativity and slow in tempo.
Quarterback Dan Ellington is a decent athlete, but lacks awareness in the pocket and the downfield precision as a passer to give this team any explosiveness. Western Michigan's defense has struggled at times this season, but the Broncos essentially only need to cover two things to keep Georgia State in check: the read option and wide receiver Penny Hart.
Charlotte at UMass
Pick: UMass -7.5
UMass might want to have a word with the scheduling committee after playing at Boston College, at Georgia Southern, and then at Florida International over the last three weeks. But this should be one of the easier wins for the Minutemen, who will finally be back at Gillette Stadium for the first time in roughly a month against arguably a bottom-10 FBS team.
Michigan State at Indiana
Pick: Michigan State -4.5
If we're living and dying by the numbers-over-teams mantra, I have to dip back into the Michigan State well, even after the Spartans burned me in Week 2 at Arizona State.
Michigan State was left flat-footed in a narrow win over Utah State in the opener, and then appeared to sleepwalk at times in the loss to the Sun Devils. This week, the Spartans get a night game in Bloomington, where the atmosphere is sure to provide another test against 3-0 Indiana. I'm just not sure a team of Michigan State's caliber will get caught off guard three times in a row.
The Spartans also check the box in nearly every category over Indiana, including experience, where there's a huge discrepancy - Michigan State has nearly everyone back from last season, while 66.4 percent of Indiana's roster is comprised of underclassmen.
Kansas at Baylor
Pick: Baylor -7.5
This is mainly just a sell-high spot on Kansas, which is riding high after winning two games in a row (I can't begin to describe how sad that is to type out). I'm just as surprised this number opened under 10 as I am that it continues to dip. This feels like a slight market overreaction.
Pittsburgh at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina +3.5
Pitt +4 was a recommendation last week against a Georgia Tech team playing its second consecutive road game with a banged-up offense; the Panthers won outright. This time around, I recommend fading Pitt against a North Carolina team with extra rest getting more than a field goal at home.
Top Plays: 6-8
Overall Record: 12-18
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.