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Each week during the college football season, Covers Experts' Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Sharps have flagged these games as lines to keep an eye on for Week 6:
Spread to bet now:
Toledo (-13.5) vs. Eastern Michigan
Toledo opened at -13 and was quickly bet higher to -13.5. Play this game before it hits the key number of -14 or higher. Toledo enters with extra preparation time off a bye week and the Rockets are taking a big step down in class after facing Miami-Florida two weeks ago. Toledo's offense was strong in that loss, scoring 30 points on 429 total yards.
Eastern Michigan does not have the advantage of a bye week and they enter this game off back-to-back close losses versus Ohio and Kentucky which could leave the Eagles flat. Eastern Michigan is the substantially weaker offensive team in this game, averaging just 20 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 27 ppg and 5.6 yppl).
Spread to wait on:
Kent State (+23.5) at Northern Illinois
This line opened at +23 and has already risen higher to +23.5. Wait for it to hit the key number of +24 or more. Kent State is battle-tested as they enter conference play after playing a tough non-conference schedule that included road games at Clemson and Louisville.
Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS, but they have only been a point spread favorite in one game this season. This game is a possible letdown spot after big road games at Nebraska and San Diego State the past two weeks. Covering this big number might be difficult with an offense that has underperformed this season, averaging just 26.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.1 ppg on 5.5 yppl).
Total to watch:
LSU at Florida (46.5)
After a high-scoring game in 2015 (LSU 35-28), these teams played a low-scoring contest last year (Florida 16-10). That score was misleading as LSU held a 423-270 total yard edge, but could not overcome a 2-0 turnover deficit.
Florida's offense has scored 28 points or less in three of their four games this season and will now be facing a tough LSU defense that has allowed just 19.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this year (versus opponents that average 22.2 ppg on 5.2 yppl). LSU's offense has scored 27 points or less in three of their four games versus FBS opponents this season.