NCAAF opening line report: College football opening lines on the move early
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Conference play is in full swing for Week 5 of the college football season. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a few noteworthy matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 5 Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Washington State Cougars (+6)
Two unbeatens in the Pac-12 kick off the weekend a day early, with a 10:30 p.m. ET Friday night clash. Southern Cal is 4-0 SU, but hasn’t been particularly impressive in getting there, save for its solid win over Stanford in Week 2. In Week 4, the Trojans (1-3 ATS) traveled to California, where they trailed early and were still tied at 13 in the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 30-20 victory as a 16.5-point favorite.
Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has put up 45 points or more in three of four games. The Cougars rumbled over Nevada 45-7 as a hefty 28.5-point chalk this past Saturday.
“With a 1-3 record against the spread, the public seems to be fading USC,” Mason said. “Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5. Within the first few hours after the openers hit the board, there were more bets on Washington State than any other team.”
No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (+7)
The Atlantic Coast Conference will also have a pair of perfect teams in prime time, for an 8 p.m. ET Saturday night contest. Defending national champion Clemson kept right on rolling in Week 4, routing Boston College 34-7 but falling short as a 33.5-point fave, the first pointspread setback of the year for the Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).
Clemson already has big wins over Auburn and Louisville, in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.
VaTech sports the same 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS record, steamrolling three lightweights over the past three weeks after a solid opening neutral-site win over West Virginia. The Hokies dumped Old Dominion 38-0 laying 28.5 points in Week 4.
“With this top-20 matchup going down under the nationally televised prime-time lights, it’s safe to say this game will get more volume than any other game on the college football betting board,” Mason said. “A few respected bettors took the 7 real quick, moving the Hokies to +6.5. However, it’s looking like we will be Tech fans Saturday night, as 62 percent of early bettors are backing Clemson.”
No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-9)
Mississippi State was the upstart of the first three weeks, which included a stunning home blowout of Louisiana State in Week 3. But the Bulldogs (3-1 SU and ATS) got a reality check Saturday at Georgia, where they were dealt a 31-3 bashing as a 2.5-point pup.
Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) seemed to get back in gear this past weekend, blasting Missouri 51-14 giving 18.5 points on the road. That win came after a very lackluster 24-10 win over Mercer as a massive 40-point favorite, a game that was perhaps a hangover from the Tigers’ 14-6 loss at Clemson as a 6-point ‘dog in Week 2.
“A month into the season, Auburn finally covered their first game of the season this past weekend, while Mississippi State failed to cover for the first time,” Mason said. “Early bettors are pretty split in this SEC showdown, with 58 percent of the public on the Tigers.”
The Bulldogs and Tigers kick off at 6 p.m. ET Saturday.
No. 7 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+14.5)
Much like Mississippi State, Oklahoma State also got a huge dose of reality in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) were averaging 54 points per game, but fell way short of that in a 44-31 upset loss as a 9-point home chalk against Texas Christian.
Texas Tech is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, and in Week 4 hit the road for the first time, with great success. The Red Raiders went to Houston as a 7-point underdog and left with a 27-24 outright victory.
“Both teams have been generous to bettors this season,” Mason said. “Oklahoma State’s lone noncover was against TCU, which was the biggest college football winner of the weekend for BetOnline. After opening as 14.5-point dogs, Texas Tech immediately got bet down to +11.5.”
It’s another prime-time matchup, at 8 p.m. ET Saturday.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.