As we inch closer to March Madness, we turn our attention to the bubble and the respective teams living on it. Every Friday for the rest of the season, theScore will provide a look at teams sitting on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA tournament.
Butler (20-9, 9-8)
RPI: 48 SOS: 83
Key Wins: Purdue, Seton Hall (twice)
The Bulldogs put an end to Seton Hall’s hot streak, sinking the Pirates by seven Wednesday at Hinkle Fieldhouse, with the win completing their season sweep of the Pirates. Despite the victory, Butler still has more work to do if it wants to find itself on the right side of the bubble in nine days. Sitting fourth in the Big East, the Bulldogs are just 5-7 against the RPI top 100. Their contest Saturday against Marquette won't move the needle with the selection committee, so they'll need to capture a win against either Xavier or Villanova in Madison Square Garden next week to bolster their resume.
TeamRankings.com quantified Butler’s win over Seton Hall, stating that the victory gave the Bulldogs a 12-percent boost in terms of their at-large odds. Now sitting at 78 percent, Butler will join their fellow bubble brethren rooting for schools like Wichita State, Little Rock, and Valparaiso to win their respective conference tournaments. If any of those programs fell in their conference title game, the bubble could shrink, squeezing out teams like Butler.
Vanderbilt (19-11, 11-6)
RPI: 49 SOS: 52
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Kentucky
Vandy started the season as the 18th-ranked team in the AP poll before an 8-7 start put any postseason tournament invitations into doubt. The Commodores, however, have regained their preseason swagger over the past three weeks. Winner of four straight, Vanderbilt has the opportunity to sweep Texas A&M in their season series before returning home to Nashville for the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena.
The magic number for the Commodores appears to be 21, with a little more than a week before Selection Sunday. TeamRankings.com gives Vandy close to an 80-percent chance of acquiring an at-large bid should it capture a 21st victory. The Bracket Matrix has Vandy pegged as a 10-seed, with 103 of the 108 projected brackets featuring VU. Kevin Stallings’ team has the second highest average margin of victory in the SEC at 10.4 points. They're also excellent at forcing teams into poor shot selection, evidenced by their opponents shooting just 38.4 percent from the floor (fifth). If the Commodores make the Big Dance, they could prove to be an extremely tough out for a top seed in the second round.
Pittsburgh (20-9, 9-8)
RPI: 47 SOS: 34
Key Wins: @Notre Dame, Duke
Jamie Dixon’s Panther team scored a vital victory Sunday over Duke, but followed that up with a damaging four-point defeat to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. That road loss weakened Pittsburgh's road record to just 3-5 on the season. Should the Panthers knock off Georgia Tech in their regular-season finale, the prevailing wisdom is they'd need just one win in the ACC tournament to secure an at-large bid.
The Panthers had risen as high as a fourth seed in some projected brackets after opening the season 14-1 with wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse. Since then, they're just 6-8, dropping head scratchers to Clemson and Virginia Tech, while needing double overtime to dispatch Wake Forest, a program with just two ACC wins all season. If they can secure an at-large bid, they've proven they can elevate their game, particularly on offense. Pittsburgh shares the ball better than just about any team in the country, notching 17.5 assists per game while assisting on 65 percent of made field goals. James Robinson, Pitt’s starting point guard, has set the tone for better or worse down the stretch for their offense. Over the last 10 games, he's averaged eight assists in wins and half that in losses.
George Washington (22-8, 11-6)
RPI: 60 SOS: 127
Key Wins: Virginia, Seton Hall, @ VCU
As of Friday, it looks like the Atlantic 10 has two teams solidly in the field (Dayton, St. Joe’s) and three teams on the bubble (VCU, St. Bonaventure, George Washington). VCU has won five of its last six, and owns victories over SBU, GWU, and St. Joe’s. St. Bonaventure is the flavor of the week among bracketologists, surging up the seeding ladder behind a season sweep of St. Joe’s and a road win at Dayton. This leaves George Washington on the outside looking in with just one regular-season game remaining before the A-10 tournament at the Barclays Center.
Luckily for the Colonials, their marquee non-conference win over Virginia is a trump card if they’re on the Selection Committee’s chopping block next weekend. Another factor sure to impress the committee is GWU’s road record, which can improve to 8-4 with a win in their regular-season finale at Davidson. Mike Lonergan’s squad is already locked in as a five-seed in the A-10 tournament which means they' ll likely face either SBU, Dayton, or VCU in the quarterfinals in Brooklyn. A win in the quarters should be enough to push them into the field of 68.
GWU’s starting five features three international players and an excellent senior leader in Patricio Garino. Additionally, the Colonials’ front line of Kevin Larsen and Tyler Cavanaugh combine to average 28.5 points and 16 rebounds, which contributes to the Colonials' impressive rebounding rate (54 percent, 30th). This is the kind of team that could go from sneaking into the tournament to the Sweet Sixteen in the blink of an eye.