March Madness regional betting preview: The East's dark-horse candidate
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Why not start with the big one?
It makes sense to begin our regional previews with the East because it's the only quadrant without a First Four game. It's also loaded with three of last year's Final Four and a quartet of power conference champions.
Strategically, the East will be critical because it houses No. 1 overall seed and defending champion UConn. Its +375 odds to win the title aren't as tantalizing as last season when it lingered around 20-1 as a 4-seed. Perhaps appropriately, we'll take a shot against the Huskies with a team that's looking a lot like UConn a year ago.
The East Region 🙌 pic.twitter.com/bIkCGTN13Y
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2024
Odds to win the East Region
We've included a point-spread rating for each team with its odds of making the Final Four. The difference in teams' ratings can help project a fair point spread for a potential matchup later in the tournament.
| TEAM (Seed) | ODDS | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| UConn (1) | +105 | 45 |
| Auburn (4) | +300 | 43 |
| Iowa St. (2) | +320 | 41.5 |
| Illinois (3) | +750 | 40 |
| BYU (6) | +1600 | 38 |
| San Diego State (5) | +2800 | 37 |
| Florida Atlantic (8) | +3300 | 35 |
| Drake (10) | +6600 | 34 |
| Northwestern (9) | +6600 | 35 |
| Washington State (7) | +6600 | 35 |
| Duquesne (11) | +20000 | 30.5 |
| South Dakota State (15) | +30000 | 27 |
| Stetson (16) | +30000 | 22.5 |
| UAB (12) | +30000 | 29 |
| Morehead State (14) | +50000 | 28.5 |
| Yale (13) | +50000 | 31 |
First-round bets
(11) Duquesne vs. (6) BYU (-9.5, 142.5)
March 21, 12:40 p.m. ET
BYU's game plan is to get threes up early and often. That can look pretty when they're going in. However, the Cougars' starters went 1/17 from deep in their blowout loss in the Big 12 quarters against Texas Tech.
Duquesne led the A10 in 3-point defense, holding conference opponents to 29.5% this season. The Dukes also won three straight tournament games as an underdog by keeping Dayton, St. Bonaventure, and VCU to a combined 16/74 beyond the arc.
BYU shot just 32.6% from three in Big 12 play. Asking the Cougars to win by double digits is a bit excessive if they can't rack up threes, especially with a point spread that's drifted higher than our projection of BYU -7.5.
Pick: Duquesne (+9.5)
(10) Drake vs. (7) Washington State (+1.5, 137.5)
March 21, 10:05 p.m. ET
There's almost nothing to choose from between two teams with near-identical ShotQuality metrics, but KenPom gives Washington State the advantage in adjusted defensive metrics. However, the betting market loves Drake, moving Kyle Smith's Cougars into an underdog role.
Drake escaped a near-catastrophic second half in the final of Arch Madness when an 18-point lead over Indiana State became a tie game in six minutes. It was reminiscent of its collapse against Miami in last year's Big Dance, where star Tucker DeVries went 1/13. With Smith's defense-first approach making DeVries the focal point, the Sycamores' offense will sputter late.
Pick: Washington State (+1.5)
(12) UAB vs. (5) San Diego State (-6.5, 138.5)
March 22, 1:45 p.m. ET
An AAC title isn't what it used to be. UAB's run, which required just one upset, isn't enough to make us think it's a dangerous 12-seed. ShotQuality thinks the 19-11 Blazers should be closer to 15-15.
Naysayers will claim that defense-first San Diego State has a hard time winning by a sizeable margin, but 20 of its 24 wins came by eight-plus points. The Aztecs' ShotQuality and KenPom metrics suggest this line should be higher (-8), a rare March Madness scenario where there's value on the favorite.
Pick: San Diego State (-6.5)
Second-round bet to target
(6) BYU vs. (3) Illinois
Projected line: Illinois -2
It might be too much to ask BYU to win by 10-plus points in the first round against a good defensive team, but Illinois is more the Cougars' speed. ShotQuality ranks BYU better by 0.05 points per possession.
Illinois can score at will, but so can its opponents thanks to the Illini's 93rd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency. We may even get an inflated number against Illinois if the Cougars struggle in the first round.
Pick: BYU (+2 or better)
Best value bet to win the East
Last year, Auburn lost to 1-seed Houston after blowing a 10-point lead with only five reliable players. This season, Bruce Pearl has focused on building more than a one- or two-star team - moving KD Johnson to the role of energetic sixth-man, for example.
That focus on depth sounds like UConn, which should win both games easily this weekend to set up a Sweet 16 showdown. Even though the Tigers are a 4-seed, they're the fourth-best team by KenPom. While the Huskies have been dominant in the Big East, they haven't faced a team like Auburn this season. Even last year's title run came without them facing a No. 1 or 2 seed.
My compadre, Sam Oshtry, picked the Tigers to win the region, and we're in lockstep. However, I'll do him one better. Auburn is my pick to win the national title at +1600 or better. If they can pull a mini-upset over UConn, the Tigers should be favored in any matchup thereafter.
Before the SEC Tournament, Pearl told his team it'd win nine straight games - three in Nashville and six in the NCAA Tournament. At 16-1, I'm willing to believe him. That starts with the East Region.
Pick: Auburn (+300 or better)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.