5 teams needing conference tourney runs to make March Madness

With Selection Sunday days away, many of college basketball's top squads are making final adjustments for March Madness as they weave through through exciting conference tournament brackets.

But for teams squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, the results of these final few contests can mean the difference between going dancing or watching from home.

Here are five teams that need a strong push in their conference tournaments to make this year's March Madness.

St. John's

Rick Pitino's squad has work to do if it wants to make the tournament in his first year at the helm. Going 11-9 in a very challenging Big East is a good start, but the Red Storm's resume leaves much to be desired. Despite picking up a hefty number of conference wins, only one came against a surefire NCAA Tournament team. They went a combined 1-7 against UConn, Marquette, Creighton, and Seton Hall, leaving too many top-tier wins on the table.

Most frustrating for St. John's: It held at least an eight-point lead in five of those eight games; closing down the stretch is a major issue. The nonconference schedule doesn't look great either, with a November loss to Michigan becoming more sour by the week, and another double-digit blown lead to lowly Boston College.

It'll be tough going: An opening-round matchup against Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament awaits, and if the Red Storm win that game, they'll almost surely face powerhouse UConn. But should the third time be the charm against the Huskies, Pitino and Co. will be part of the March Madness field.

Wake Forest

It seemed like Wake Forest had secured its first NCAA Tournament since 2017 with a thrilling 83-79 victory over Duke on Feb. 24. The win pushed the Demon Deacons to 18-9 on the year and 10-6 in conference play, with a 15-0 home record. Plus, beating their in-state rival finally gave them a signature win.

All Wake Forest had to do was not have a major letdown the next time out, on the road against 10-17 Notre Dame. Cue a second-half blown lead and loss. The Demon Deacons then had a chance to redeem themselves with a quality road win against an average Virginia Tech team - another loss. Not great, but still some hope. They just needed to beat KenPom's No. 130 team, Georgia Tech, a team they beat by 29 weeks earlier, to right the ship. They lost 70-69.

The team did recover in its regular-season finale to take down tourney-bound Clemson. But Wake Forest needs a run at the ACC Tournament to comfortably advance to March Madness. Ironically, its first game will be against Notre Dame, one of the teams that recently tripped the Demon Deacons up. Winning the opener and beating fellow bubble team Pittsburgh may be enough, but winning a likely date against North Carolina in the semifinals would seal the deal.

Utah

Utah should also be cheering for Wake Forest, because a November neutral-site victory over the Demon Deacons was one of the Utes' best wins of the year. The team's nonconference schedule is its resume's strength: It picked up high-quality wins against BYU and at St. Mary's while playing Houston as tightly as one could reasonably expect (lost by 10).

The Pac-12 campaign has been much more of a challenge for the Utes. While Utah is 8-2 at home, with one of the losses coming against Pac-12 champions Arizona in triple-overtime, it went a brutal 1-9 on the road, including losses to three teams ranked below 100 in KenPom. A road defeat to last place Oregon State on Thursday likely sealed Utah's fate without help in its conference tournament.

A victory against Arizona State to open play is obviously an absolute requirement for the Utes, but not a given after they dropped both contests to the Sun Devils this year. The big game is a quarterfinal tilt against Colorado, which could be a "win and you're in" situation for two bubble teams. Utah's true needle-mover would be taking down Arizona after coming so close at home, but that matchup wouldn't take place unless the Utes make a run to the tournament final.

Texas A&M

No bubble team has a resume quite like Texas A&M's. The Aggies have three mammoth wins against Iowa State, Tennessee, and Kentucky but also six losses to clear non-tournament teams, including being swept by 15-16 Arkansas and falling to 9-22 Vanderbilt.

Shooting is this team's clear flaw, ranking 349th in field-goal percentage and 360th in 3-point percentage out of 362 teams. The Aggies are understandably 7-0 in SEC play when they knock down 40% of their threes and 3-8 when they don't. Despite leading the country in offensive rebounds and playing stout defense, it's not difficult to beat this squad when its shots aren't falling. The dichotomy between its wins and losses makes Texas A&M a fascinating case to monitor.

Of course, a deep run in the loaded SEC Tournament will make the committee's decision much easier. If the Aggies make the championship game like they did last season, they're a surefire March Madness team. The journey begins with a struggling Ole Miss squad that lost by 26 at home to the Aggies on Saturday. But, naturally, the Rebels' most impressive SEC win of the year was on the road against this Texas A&M team. Buzz Williams and Co. may be safe by winning a game they should handle, but beating Kentucky in the quarterfinals would leave no doubt.

New Mexico

New Mexico is the classic "analytics versus resume" case among this year's bubble teams. The Lobos rank No. 28 in the NET, ahead of guaranteed NCAA Tournament squads including Texas Tech, Florida, and TCU. They also sit No. 34 in KenPom, ahead of potential top-six seeds South Carolina and Washington State.

The problem is the actual game-to-game results. New Mexico didn't pick up any nonconference wins against March Madness-bound teams and went a measly 10-8 in Mountain West play, including a dreadful home loss to 9-21 Air Force. Essentially, the Lobos' only big wins have come against Mountain West foes, going 5-5 against their five conference opponents slated to make the Field of 68.

They'll begin conference tournament play against Air Force, where another surprising loss to the Falcons will surely knock them out of NCAA Tournament contention. A quarterfinal contest against Boise State probably stands as a "win and you're in" game, but New Mexico is 0-2 against the Broncos this year and won't have the excellent home-court advantage The Pit provides to squeeze out a victory.