Pac-12 Tournament preview: Best bets for the conference's grand finale

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Cue Green Day's "Good Riddance (Time of Your Life)" - it's the last Pac-12 Tournament as we know it.

To hit any type of jackpot here, we'll have to find someone other than odds-on favorite Arizona to take home the final trophy.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Tournament odds

With multi-bid leagues, we'll help clarify what each team is playing for by putting it in one of four categories. Those categories are: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Early-round bet

First round: (11) Arizona State vs. (6) Utah (-6, 144.5)
March 13, 9:00 p.m. ET

Two of my primary tenets in handicapping concerning fundamental stats are 3-point shooting and rebounding. Dominating those two categories chips away at an opponent's will and contributes to victory beyond the value of the points or gaining possession. Arizona State is the worst team in the Pac-12 in both.

The Sun Devils could mask their struggles by taking efficient shots or defending in a way that prevents opponents from getting quality offensive possessions - but they don't. Arizona State has the worst AdjOFF, and only Washington and Oregon State have a worse AdjDEF.

Arizona State beat Utah in Salt Lake City thanks to shooting 43.5% from three and winning the rebound battle. Jose Perez had 21 points in that game, kickstarting a string of seven games in which he averaged 17.3 points. The run was so good that it warranted a pro contract, and he's already left Tempe to start a career overseas. If that's symbolic of the Sun Devils' season, the Utes - who are still clinging to NCAA hopes - should be able to take care of them Wednesday night.

Pick: Utah (-6)

Late-round matchup(s) to target

Quarterfinal: (5) UCLA vs. (4) Oregon
Projected spread: Oregon (-3.5)

Oregon's January 6th win at Washington State probably looks better now than it did then. Somewhat improbably, the Ducks went the rest of the Pac-12 season without an impressive victory.

Admittedly, so did UCLA - but it's not the team being asked to cover a point spread in a game between teams that are equal by ShotQuality metrics. Despite a down year in Westwood, Mick Cronin can get his Bruins up for tournament play, and Adem Bona can match up with Ducks big man N'Faly Dante.

Pick: UCLA (+3.5)

USC (+1600)

Odds-on favorite status is usually reserved for teams with just one or two conference losses. Arizona has five. Colorado and Oregon seem to be a good matchup for Arizona, as the Wildcats are 4-0 with a winning margin of plus-96 against those two programs. But it's worth mentioning Arizona's 47-point win over Colorado happened while the Buffaloes were shorthanded.

So, who has the top-end talent and has shown it can steal a game against the Wildcats? Look no further than USC, the team that went 8-12 in league play and beat Arizona convincingly on Saturday.

Expected first-round NBA draft pick Isaiah Collier missed six games (including a trip to Tucson), and the Trojans went 1-5 in his absence. His backcourt running mate, Boogie Ellis, also missed time. Picked second in the Pac-12 preseason media poll, USC got healthy and closed the season 5-2 with a double-OT loss to Colorado and a last-minute loss at Washington State.

With upper-tier talent and proof it can now play with the league's top teams, let's take a flyer on USC to make a run at the automatic bid it'll need to make the NCAA Tournament.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.