National championship game betting preview: Can Kansas slow surging UNC?
Saturday was a tough go for our best bets, with the first game pushing past the total thanks to a historically strong shooting performance from both teams, and the second falling apart thanks to Duke's surprising collapse in the final minutes.
We have one last chance to redeem ourselves and believe the national championship game offers strong value for the favorite.
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Kansas (-4, 153.5)
Monday, 9:20 p.m.
North Carolina has put together an incredible string of games using almost strictly its starting five, but the core group will face its stiffest test yet against top-seeded Kansas.
The Jayhawks possess elite size at every position except point guard, where Dajuan Harris' pesky defense and Remy Martin's isolation offense will give Tar Heels star Caleb Love problems. In general, Kansas' defense is wired to disrupt North Carolina; it thrives on defending the 3-point line, allowing double-digit long balls just three times since January and ranking 25th nationally in percentage defense.
The Tar Heels lean on their 3-point shooting, taking over 40% of their field goals from deep in the tournament. They're less efficient around the basket and can struggle in pick-and-roll scenarios. That latter factor is key against Kansas big man David McCormack, who doesn't defend well in space.
On offense, Kansas is best when working inside out. The Jayhawks search for post-up opportunities with McCormack and look to kick out for 3-pointers when available. With North Carolina sitting in the bottom half nationally in both post-up and 3-point defense on a per-possession basis, Kansas should be able to take advantage when it has the ball.
Transition play is also in Kansas' favor. These two teams are two of the best when pushing the pace on the break, each playing fast tempos and doing so efficiently. However, while the Jayhawks rank in the top quarter nationally in transition defense, per Synergy, the Tar Heels rank in just the 27th percentile. This discrepancy is further exemplified by Kansas going 6-1 against the spread when facing teams in the top 100 in KenPom's tempo rankings, while North Carolina is just 4-5.
Numbers aside, Kansas also has a plethora of matchup advantages. While Love may be the best pure scorer in the contest, the aforementioned offense-defense combination of Harris and Martin will challenge him on both ends.
6-foot North Carolina guard RJ Davis will have to square off against a much bigger Christian Braun, Kansas' best defender on a per-possession basis who should also be able to shoot over his diminutive counterpart. The Jayhawks' Ochai Agbaji may be matched up with lockdown defender Leaky Black, but Agbaji is too talented to be completely neutralized. Plus, being assigned to defend the seldom used Black will allow Agbaji a rest.
At the forward spot, Jalen Wilson is the perfect blend of size and speed to give sharpshooter Brady Manek problems. Plus, Wilson ranks in the 98th percentile in isolation offense, which will be tough for Manek, who was constantly beaten by Duke's Paolo Banchero on Saturday. Armando Bacot's matchup with McCormack down low will be a battle of two dominant low-post players. While Bacot is a force on the glass, McCormack's elite ability to draw fouls may send his counterpart to the bench early.
The last major edge for Kansas lies in the reserves. North Carolina has produced just six bench points over its last three games, all from oft-used Puff Johnson. Meanwhile, Kansas can depend on reserves Martin and Mitch Lightfoot for key minutes. Should the Tar Heels get into foul trouble, their lack of depth will be exposed.
All things considered, four points is too short of a spread to consider siding with the underdog. If this game took place at the start of the tournament, Kansas would have likely been favored by eight or nine. Obviously, North Carolina has performed well enough to warrant a shorter line, but it needed some big plays down the stretch to win its three games against elite competition. With Kansas representing the best of the bunch, expect the Tar Heels' bubble to finally burst.
Pick: Kansas -4.5 or better