March Madness betting guide: Teams to back, fade, and futures to bet

March Madness brings a ton of exciting college basketball games to the table but can often feel overwhelming. All the matchups, numbers, bets, and analysis makes it hard to retain any information.

We're breaking down each region and day individually from a betting perspective, but sometimes it's beneficial to take a step back.

As a result, we've generalized the entire NCAA Tournament into a concise betting guide.

Teams to back

Duke

Duke's had its fair share of struggles this season, whether it be two blowout losses in ACC play late in the campaign or a home defeat to struggling Virginia. However, when this team is at its peak, no squad in the country can match its talent level.

The Blue Devils roster four potential first-round NBA draft picks this year and own massive victories against Gonzaga and Kentucky. Knowing that Duke can beat any team in the nation on talent alone should give comfort for bettors in tough spots.

USC

Tucked away on the West Coast, with an average strength of schedule, USC comes into the NCAA Tournament slightly underrated. The Trojans bring back much of last year's Elite Eight roster and possess the size and defense to keep any game within reach.

On top of that, head coach Andy Enfield has been excellent in the Big Dance, going 7-1 against the spread since 2016, according to Three Man Weave. USC may not be a sexy pick in its game-to-game matchups, but its cover streak is likely to continue.

Loyola Chicago

The narrative of Sister Jean willing Loyola Chicago to victory is always going to be overplayed, but the Ramblers could make another NCAA Tournament run.

The program is best known for its rock-solid defense, which allowed just 50 points per game in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Loyola also sports an efficient offense. There are no teams in the Ramblers' immediate path that can out-athlete them, so they should be able to hang tight with their opponents.

Teams to fade

Auburn

Auburn may have one of the best frontcourts in the nation, but poor guard play has recently led to some rough performances, especially away from home. None of the Tigers' three guards shoot above 39% from the field, a significant worry against teams that can match up with their big men.

The Tigers have also been too dependent on the 3-pointer lately, shooting at least 35% of their shots from beyond the arc in nine of their last 10 games. Should Auburn's shots not fall on a particular day, it could be on upset watch.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin heavily depends on star forward Johnny Davis, which means its success often matches up with his. While battling through injury last week, the Badgers went 0-2, with Davis scoring just 11 points on 3-of-19 shooting in a Big Ten Tournament loss to Michigan State.

If Davis isn't performing up to standard, Wisconsin is in trouble. The Badgers don't shoot the three well, allow teams to drain 50% from inside the arc, and force few turnovers from their opponents. Along with the fact they play a slow tempo, they're susceptible to an upset from the jump.

Houston

Houston performed well this campaign despite missing two starting guards, but that deficiency will likely catch up to the Cougars in March Madness. Playing in a weak American Athletic Conference helped, but losses to SMU and Memphis showed that this team is far from the dominant squad from last season.

Any program that can defend the rim and glass should be able to handle Houston. The number of teams in the NCAA Tournament that can do those two things is quite high. Kelvin Sampson can coach his way through any game, but a lack of talent may end the Cougars' season.

Late round futures

Illinois (+135 to make Sweet 16)

Many seem to be down on Illinois' Sweet 16 potential, even though it's the higher seed in both games required to advance. A first-round matchup against Chattanooga certainly won't be easy, but the Illini have the requisite firepower to take down the scrappy mid-major underdogs.

Illinois would likely draw Houston in the Round of 32. The Cougars, as previously mentioned, are very thin at the guard position. Loaded with the size to handle Houston's offensive rebounding, two victories this weekend seems likely for the Illini.

LSU (+150 to make Sweet 16)

After firing its coach days before the NCAA Tournament, it's understandable that people are doubting LSU's ability to make a run. However, a potentially easy path to the Sweet 16 makes the Tigers a decent play here.

LSU is a nightmare first-round matchup for Iowa State. The Cyclones can't shoot 3-pointers or control the ball, both necessary against the Tigers. A potential second-round matchup against a struggling Wisconsin squad could propel LSU to the Sweet 16 with relative ease.

Iowa (+200 to make Elite Eight)

Iowa enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, winning the Big Ten championship and dropping just two games since January. Led by star Keegan Murray, the Hawkeyes' offense is capable of knocking off any opponent.

Very winnable games against Richmond followed by the winner of Providence-South Dakota State could set Iowa up for a tough challenge against Kansas. Still, the moneyline in that contest will likely be lower than the Elite Eight, so the value here is solid.

Championship favorites

Arizona (+590 to win Championship)

Arizona has long been on our radar as a potential favorite to cut down the nets next month. The combination of up-tempo offense, lockdown defense, star power, and size make the Wildcats a premier threat in the tournament.

The team may begin its journey without starting point guard Kerr Kriisa, who injured his leg in the Pac-12 Tournament. Still, it appears he'll return by the second weekend, giving Arizona its full roster moving forward.

Purdue (+1800 to win Championship)

Purdue's trio of Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey, and Trevion Williams match up with any grouping in the country. When all three are playing well, the Boilermakers can reach an offensive level that practically no team can equal.

Defense has been Purdue's issue all season, especially on the pick-and-roll. However, few of the Boilermakers' potential opponents in the bracket are wired to score in that method consistently, opening up a chance for the team's three-headed monster to make a run to the championship.

Texas Tech (+2500 to win Championship)

Texas Tech isn't our pick to win it all, but the Red Raiders can beat any program in the country with their swarming defense and experienced roster. Texas Tech beat Kansas, Baylor, and Tennessee this season while sticking with Gonzaga despite missing its second-leading scorer.

The Red Raiders can struggle at times offensively, which limits this group's upside. However, with such an outstanding defense, even an average offensive output could allow Texas Tech to sneak into the championship.