CBB midweek betting preview: Defense to shine in LSU-Texas A&M

The early week of college hoops let us down, but, luckily, a strong slate of games pushes us forward into a new stretch.

In our midweek preview, we take a look at three power conference matchups Wednesday and three mid-major tilts Thursday.

Florida @ Tennessee (-9.5, 134)
Jan. 26, 6 p.m. ET

Even if star big man Colin Castleton were available, Florida would still find Tennessee a very difficult matchup. The Volunteers are a hounding group defensively, forcing opponents into tough shots. The Gators struggle with turnovers and were often dependent on Castleton's low-post scoring to bail them out in late-clock situations.

In the first road game without its star, Florida coughed up the ball on almost a quarter of its possessions and hit just 14% of its 3-pointers. That won't cut it against the Tennessee defense. Add in the fact that the Volunteers covered six of their last seven home games, and an easy Tennessee victory makes sense with the number still within single digits.

Pick: Tennessee -10 or better

Creighton (-3, 126.5) @ Butler
Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m.

Early on in Big East play, Creighton's done a good job taking care of business, with its only losses coming against ranked Xavier and Villanova squads. The Bluejays will have to avoid falling into a trap game on the road against Butler to continue building a strong resume for the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton dominates the paint, ranking near the top of the country in 2-point percentage on both offense and defense. Butler, on the other hand, is the conference's smallest team, per KenPom, and ranks in the bottom third nationally in both 2-point percentage statistics. The Bluejays have to avoid turning the ball over against Butler's tricky defense, but they should also score at will inside to run away with the game late.

Pick: Creighton -4.5 or better

Texas A&M @ LSU (-10, 131)
Jan. 26, 9 p.m.

LSU's offense has struggled mightily since point guard Xavier Pinson went down with injury. It scored under 60 points, averaged almost 17 turnovers, and played well below its season average in tempo in the four games he's missed. The Tigers' offensive woes should continue against a Texas A&M team that's held each of its last four opponents under 65 points in regulation and is near the top of the nation in turnover rate.

That said, LSU's No. 1 ranked defense has still been as stingy as ever and is a large part of the team's 2-2 mark against the spread without Pinson. With both defenses likely to force sloppy offensive possessions for the opposition, expect this total to stay low throughout.

Pick: Under 129.5 or better

Rice @ Louisiana Tech (-11, 151)
Jan. 27, 7:30 p.m.

Louisiana Tech's Kenneth Lofton is one of the most dominant post players in the country, and he's surrounded by terrific complementary pieces. As a result, the Bulldogs run some of the smoothest offense in the mid-major ranks. Rice's defense will have few answers for Lofton and Co. It ranks in the bottom third nationally in both transition and half-court defense, per Synergy.

Louisiana Tech's biggest defensive deficiency is its 3-point coverage. Rice hits over 10 per game, one of the best marks in the country. Add in that both teams rank in the top 100 in offensive possession length, and this game should feature lots of points on both sides.

Pick: Over 154 or better

Central Arkansas @ North Florida (-7, 151)
Jan. 27, 8 p.m.

Central Arkansas is surprisingly competitive in the ASUN this season, playing an extremely up-tempo style and finishing at the basket at an above-average rate. The squad has a significant defensive problem though, ranking as one of the country's 10 worst 2-point defenses at 56.7%.

North Florida is unlikely to make the Bears pay, scoring just 42.3% of its points from inside the arc - among the lowest marks in Division I. The Ospreys only have one D-I win on the season, so siding with a Central Arkansas group that should be able to score easy points in transition with a multi-possession spread makes sense here.

Pick: Central Arkansas +5.5 or better

Morehead State (-6, 152) @ Southeastern Missouri State
Jan. 27, 9 p.m.

Southeastern Missouri State has the highest free-throw rate in the Ohio Valley and plays at the league's fastest tempo. Meanwhile, Morehead State plays at the conference's second-slowest pace while ranking in the top 15 nationally in free-throw rate defense. In these instances, the better team typically controls the pace, and that's Morehead State here.

Should Southeastern Missouri State be forced to play a half-court game, it will have trouble scoring against the Eagles' strong interior defense and need to hit a ton of 3-pointers. Expect Morehead State to keep the Redhawks out of transition and off the free-throw line, helping this total stay under the number.

Pick: Under 149 or better