Mid-major moneymakers for the 2021-22 college basketball season
With most college basketball observers focused on marquee high-major programs, it's easy to forget about the rest of the 358 D-I teams.
When it comes to betting, though, some of those less-heralded squads produce the best value. Here, we examine some mid-major teams that will make bettors lots of money this season.
Louisiana Tech
There are few mid-major players near the level of Louisiana Tech big man Kenneth Lofton Jr. The bruising 6-foot-7, 275-pound sophomore led the U.S. U-19 team in points this summer and is a mismatch for any opponent. With two other double-digit scorers also returning, the Bulldogs are in for a monster season.
Bet/Fade: Bet
Milwaukee
Milwaukee hasn't finished higher than 196th in KenPom's rankings since head coach Pat Baldwin took over, but it's slotted 119th to start this season thanks to the arrival of Baldwin's son, Patrick Baldwin Jr. The fifth overall recruit in ESPN's rankings is the best player to join a Horizon League program, but one player doesn't change a team's fortunes by himself. Expectations are just too high for the Panthers.
Bet/Fade: Fade
Pepperdine
Pepperdine lost all-time points and assists leader Colbey Ross and NBA draft pick Kessler Edwards. The result? A roster without a single player who averaged double figures in scoring last season. Expect a rebuilding campaign for the Waves, who should slot near the bottom of an extremely talented West Coast Conference.
Bet/Fade: Fade
James Madison
James Madison ranks as the Colonial Athletic Association's fifth-best team despite finishing as its 2020-21 regular-season champion and losing only one starter. Granted, that lost starter is CAA Player of the Year Matt Lewis. But four solid transfers and a competent returning core make for a deep and talented roster. Look for a big season from Seton Hall transfer Takal Molson.
Bet/Fade: Bet
South Dakota
Stanley Umude and AJ Plitzuweit both ranked in the top 150 nationally in possessions last season. But Umude transferred to Arkansas, and Plitzuweit is likely to miss the entire year due to injury. With few new additions, South Dakota is a team without its Batman and Robin. A ranking in the same vicinity as last year's screams fade.
Bet/Fade: Fade
Charlotte
Charlotte spiraled down the stretch last season, ending the year on a nine-game losing streak. Adding transfers from three NCAA Tournament teams to pair with star guard Jahmir Young should fix the issue. The 49ers' 11th-place ranking in KenPom's Conference USA standings is an overreaction to last year's struggles and doesn't reflect this team's injection of talent.
Bet/Fade: Bet
Charleston
Winthrop finished higher than 250th in eight of nine seasons under new Charleston head coach Pat Kelsey. But that's where his new squad - in a better conference with far more resources - is ranked. This team also features a D-II, D-III, and JUCO All-American; the leading scorers from two other schools; and two returning starters.
Bet/Fade: Bet
South Alabama
How good are power conference transfers when they move to a lower level? South Alabama's experiment - adding six players from college basketball's seven best leagues - will answer that question. The Jaguars' potential is through the roof, as they should be as athletic as any mid-major team in the country. Add in highly skilled VMI transfer Greg Parham, and this team might be too talented to fail.
Bet/Fade: Bet
Western Carolina
What happens when a team that goes 4-13 in conference play loses eight of its 10 leading scorers and has its head coach pried away? One can imagine the next year will be a rough one. Western Carolina is starting from scratch, making the Catamounts a team to fade throughout the season.
Bet/Fade: Fade
Northern Arizona
In a shocking move, Northern Arizona secured the commitment of former four-star transfer Jalen Cone, a career 41% 3-point shooter at Virginia Tech. What the 5-foot-10 guard doesn't do is fix the Lumberjacks' second-worst 60.4% 2-point defense. This team doesn't have any interior presence, but it can shoot the lights out and has a high-major-caliber point guard leading the way. Look to bet the over all season long.
Bet/Fade: Bet the Over
Air Force
Air Force plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, finished fifth-worst nationally in points per game last season, and only returns two players who scored more than 64 total points all year. How this team scores more than 60 in a game is anyone's guess.
Bet/Fade: Bet the Under