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National championship player props: Expect Timme to dominate down low

Jamie Schwaberow / NCAA Photos / Getty

A March Madness championship game between Baylor and Gonzaga, the two best teams in the nation, deserves our full attention. Therefore, we're going beyond the typical picks of spread and total to find some value on the board.

Here are some player props worth considering to supplement Monday's main action.

Drew Timme over 21.5 points

As mentioned in our betting preview, Drew Timme may have the biggest mismatch among all players in this game. Baylor's small lineup combined with poor post-up numbers this season should allow Timme to feast down low.

Sure, 21.5 points is a large number to eclipse, and Timme's two likeliest defenders - Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua - are Baylor's two best post defenders. Given the stats that Timme's put up recently, though, no number seems to be large enough. The sophomore big man has turned it up since a poor performance in the Round of 64, averaging 25 points on 66.7% shooting in his last four games.

Most of all, Baylor's ability to hound opposing guards should make it much harder for Gonzaga's backcourt to score efficiently. Considering Baylor sends a double-team on post-ups less than 50% of the time, the Bears will likely be OK with Timme beating them down low as long as the Bulldogs' guards don't get loose.

Jared Butler under 3.5 rebounds

This pick is much less analytical than Timme's prop but more schematic. The simplest argument against Jared Butler grabbing rebounds applies to all of Baylor's players: Gonzaga just doesn't miss often.

Beyond that, the Bears will likely do what every team attempts against Gonzaga and only allow one or two players to crash the offensive boards in hopes of getting back defensively and slowing transition. Baylor has multiple superior options on the offensive glass, making Butler a surefire pick to get sent back defensively as soon as a shot goes up.

Should all of Butler's rebounds be on the defensive end, he's only reached four or more defensive boards in four of 29 games this season. Once again, however, no team in college basketball shoots better from the field than Gonzaga, so opportunities will be few and far between. Look for Butler to contribute Monday - just in other categories.

Jalen Suggs over 26.5 points/rebounds/assists

If you want to play the momentum card, nobody will be riding higher than Jalen Suggs after his miraculous game-winner in the Final Four, and he can excel in multiple facets of Monday's matchup.

His elite athleticism at 6-foot-4 should allow him to overpower Baylor's smaller perimeter defenders. Suggs also ranks as Gonzaga's most efficient scorer off second chances, per Synergy Sports, and the Bears have notoriously struggled on the glass this season. Overall, his ability to get to the rim by cutting, driving, or offensive rebounding should make it easier for him to exploit Baylor's weaknesses than his backcourt mates.

With points and rebounds under control, the emphasis lands on assists. Considering Suggs ranks first on the Zags in dimes and has dropped five assists or more in eight of his last 12 games, that stat should be the least of your concerns. Expect Suggs to show out once again under the bright lights.

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