Elite Eight Tuesday betting preview: Trust USC to be feisty against Gonzaga
The Elite Eight continues with two matchups featuring a 1-seed, and a team from the surprisingly dominant Pac-12.
The games are similar, but we still like bets on opposite sides of the spectrum for Tuesday night's slate.
No. 6 USC vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-9, 154)
Gonzaga's dominance this campaign has been well-documented. A 29-0 record, only one single-digit victory, and the best 2-point offense in the modern era. The list goes on, and selecting USC against the spread suggests Gonzaga will be given its toughest test all season on Tuesday, but that's what we're thinking here.
An ever-improving 2-3 zone has only bolstered USC's stifling, nation-leading 2-point defense. The Trojans have allowed just 58.3 points per game all tournament long, and 12 straight USC opponents have been held below those schools' previous season average inside the arc. That's happening even though this USC squad hasn't played much together while ranked only 317th in minutes continuity from last season, according to KenPom. The team's defense improves with each passing game.
Meanwhile, the only program to keep things remotely close against Gonzaga in 2021 was BYU. The Cougars' athletic guards and lengthy frontcourt players were able to hold their own inside against the Zags, forcing Gonzaga to focus on perimeter jumpers. While senior Corey Kispert is one of the country's best shooters, the rest of Gonzaga's starting lineup only shoots 34.8% from deep.
USC possesses the length and athleticism to match and improve upon BYU's game plan. Plus, with the Trojans lighting it up from the 3-point line in recent games, they should produce enough offense to keep up.
With USC's defense likely to somewhat neutralize Gonzaga's interior onslaught, we're making a small play on the under, and running full steam ahead on the Trojans playing the Bulldogs closer than any team this year.
Pick: USC +9
No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 1 Michigan (-7. 136.5)
While UCLA turning a First Four appearance into an Elite Eight run is obviously surprising, Michigan's continued dominance without Isaiah Livers has been just as impressive.
A main reason for the Wolverines' success without Livers has been Brandon Johns' emergence. The 6-foot-8 junior broke out with 14 points during Sunday's win over Florida State, providing a much-needed complement to star Hunter Dickinson down low.
Between Dickinson, Johns, and the rest of the Wolverines, the squad dropped 50 points in the paint on the Seminoles, which was the difference in the contest. Michigan shouldn't struggle to replicate that success against UCLA.
Since 6-foot-9 Chris Smith - the Bruins' leading scorer last season - went down with a season-ending knee injury, UCLA has been playing with only one rotation player over 6-foot-6. Naturally, the Bruins have been outscored on the interior in three of their four tournament games.
While UCLA was able to control the pace against Alabama, it now faces a Michigan squad that also likes to play a slow tempo. Without the ability to make the Wolverines uncomfortable on defense, the onus falls on the Bruins' offense to catch fire once again. UCLA can get hot from beyond the arc, and it will need that shooting in spades to counteract Michigan's 2-point attack.
UCLA has made its run in the tournament while mostly playing within itself, making timely shots, and controlling the tempo. Unfortunately, those are all things Michigan can very effectively take away. You can feel confident laying seven points with the Wolverines here.
Pick: Michigan -7
(Odds source: theScore Bet)