Big 12 Tournament betting preview: Should you pay short price on Baylor?

Kansas and Iowa State have dominated the Big 12 Tournament recently, combining to win in 12 of the last 14 and each of the last seven. Oddsmakers are expecting a different result this time around, pricing Baylor as the odds-on favorite to win its first-ever Big 12 Tournament title.

Odds to win the Big 12 Tournament

What's at stake?

The Big 12 will almost certainly send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament, barring a miracle run from one of the conference's three lowest seeds. Six are currently flirting with a top-four seed - and that doesn't include Oklahoma, the No. 7 team in the nation just two weeks ago.

Baylor is likely locked into a No. 1 seed regardless of what happens this week, while Kansas and West Virginia could realistically play themselves onto the 2-line with a deep run. Really, any team winning this tournament should see a serious bump in its tournament stock given the strength of the Big 12 this season - which means plenty of motivation for almost every team involved.

Who's worth betting?

Baylor is far and away the best team in this tournament, boasting a 21-1 record with 17 double-digit wins. Yet the Bears' defense has regressed down the stretch, allowing at least 1.0 points per possession to each of their last seven opponents after holding 10 of their first 15 opponents below that number.

This tournament also means less to Baylor than any other team in the field. Are tired legs and an increased injury risk worth a slightly better draw from the committee, especially now that an undefeated season is off the table? As we saw over the last two weeks, the Bears certainly aren't unbeatable even when motivated.

Oklahoma State will be a popular pick because of star freshman Cade Cunningham and the team's 6-1 run to end the regular season, which included a win at West Virginia without Cunningham. Those two squads will face off again Thursday with the winner earning a likely semifinal date with Baylor, which beat the Cowboys by a combined 26 points in the regular season.

Can a long shot win?

If by "long shot" you mean TCU, Kansas State, or Iowa State, then the answer is a resounding no. If you mean "any team but Baylor," that's a different story.

Texas (+800) and Texas Tech (+900) have been my favorite dark-horse Big 12 teams all season, and they're both worth a look by virtue of avoiding Baylor until the championship round. The two will face each other Thursday - the Red Raiders swept their two prior meetings - with the victor taking on the winner of Kansas versus Oklahoma / Iowa State.

Speaking of Oklahoma, it's too early to quit on the Sooners after four losses by five points or fewer to end the season. The team's defense fell apart in those losses, but that unit has been solid at preventing easy looks all year long, while Lon Kruger's group is disciplined enough offensively to stay in any game.

Best bet

Texas Tech +900

Baylor's biggest threat is Kansas (+400), the only team to beat the Bears this season. But the value lies with Texas Tech, which has been a tough out for the Big 12's top teams and draws a relatively favorable path to the finals.

Leading scorer Mac McClung has shown star upside this season, though he was taken out of Sunday's loss to Baylor when he attempted just nine shots and zero free throws. If he remains involved throughout the week and Chris Beard coaxes the best from his defense, the Red Raiders are plenty capable of cashing at long odds.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.