CBB weekend betting preview: Back Michigan in Big Ten rematch
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We padded our record earlier this week with a 3-1 mark against the spread - including two outright wins by underdogs - and would have been perfect if not for an epic shot from our savior, Mac McClung. Still, we're happy to take our 18-10 ATS mark into another jam-packed weekend of hoops.
Here are a few of my favorite bets this weekend.
Bellarmine at Florida Gulf Coast (-2.5, 130.5), Jan. 15 at 7 p.m. ET
If this is your first time hearing about Bellarmine, you need to know only two things: two of the Knights' three wins have come against Division III schools, and their 3-point defense is perhaps the worst in the country.
Out of the 345 teams that have played at least one game, Bellarmine ranks 343rd in opponent 3-point percentage (43.9%) and allows teams to take 52% of their shots from deep, which ranks 344th. It's allowed five of eight opponents to shoot 36% or better from three and lost all five games by an average of 10.8 points.
Everyone remembers Florida Gulf Coast from its Sweet 16 run in 2013 when the Eagles dunked their way into the hearts of basketball fans everywhere. This isn't that team - it takes 44.6% of its shots from three, which ranks 37th in the nation, and is 4-0 when shooting at least 28% from the perimeter. Barring a collapse from deep, the Eagles should run away with this one.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast -2.5
North Carolina at Florida State (-2.5, 144.5), Jan. 16 at 12 p.m.
Something is wrong with North Carolina's offense, and Tuesday's season-best showing versus Syracuse isn't enough to ignore it. The Tar Heels' effective field-goal percentage (45.8) is the third-worst of any team from a high-major conference, and only one rotation player is shooting better than 50% from the field.
UNC's saving grace is, as usual, its elite rebounding. The Tar Heels are grabbing 42.1% of their misses - second-most in the country - to offset one of the nation's least effective 3-point shooting attacks. There's only one problem: Florida State is among the few teams with the size to compete on the boards and mitigate North Carolina's primary source of offense.
The Seminoles' defense has struggled of late, but they're elite inside and have generated at least six steals in all but one of their games this year. North Carolina is among the nation's worst at controlling the ball, thanks in part to freshman Caleb Love's 3.3 turnovers per game. If that continues, it'll be a long day for the Tar Heels.
Pick: Florida State -2.5
No. 7 Michigan (-4.5, 147.5) at No. 23 Minnesota, Jan. 16 at 2 p.m.
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher, and it seems the only way to justify it is the looming specter of a "trap game" after Michigan blasted Minnesota just 10 days before this rematch.
That game wasn't a fluke. The Wolverines subsequently blew out Wisconsin by 23 on Tuesday - they led by 40 at one point before taking their foot off the gas. It was Michigan's third straight win by at least 19 points against a ranked opponent - which no other team in NCAA history has done - and extended its record to 11-0 straight-up and 9-2 ATS.
Conversely, Minnesota has lost three of its last four and was exposed in the paint against Iowa, just as it was the game before against Michigan. The Wolverines haven't lost a step since that 25-point win on Jan. 6 and are simply too talented to let up in this one.
Pick: Michigan -4.5
Arkansas at Alabama (-3.5, 161.5), Jan. 16 at 3:30 p.m.
Earlier this year, Nate Oat's unproven Alabama squad was full of upside but still clearly a work in progress. Thirteen games later, we're seeing the progress, and the result is one of the best buys in the country.
Since losing to Western Kentucky on Dec. 19, the Crimson Tide have gone 5-0-1 ATS thanks to an inspired effort on both ends. Four of those six opponents had their least efficient defensive showing of the year against Alabama, which conversely held five of six to below 0.96 points per possession - including SEC stalwarts Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky.
Arkansas is among the few teams that can match Alabama's pace, but the Razorbacks have done much of their damage this year against inferior competition, going 0-3 against teams in the KenPom top 50. Lay the short price on the better - and hotter - team.
Pick: Alabama -3.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.