CBB weekly betting preview: Matchups favor Tennessee, Florida State
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Last week's 1-2 mark was disappointing after such a hot start, though we're still 10-4 against the spread and love the value in this week's early slate.
Here are a few of my favorite bets.
Pepperdine (-2.5) @ UNLV, Dec. 14 @ 9:30 p.m. ET
Pepperdine has been one of the more frustrating teams to bet this year, as evidenced by its stunning loss to Cal State Northridge (+15) on Saturday. Still, this is the same team that took UCLA (-6.5) to triple overtime, held a 16-point second-half lead over San Diego State (-8.5), and dominated in its other three games this season.
It's been a different story for UNLV, which lost its first four games before a Dec. 5 win over a Kansas State team that's gotten off to its own uninspiring start. The Rebels have had a tough schedule to start but still lost each of their first three games by 12 points or more - including an embarrassing 13-point loss to Montana State (+12), which is barely ranked in KenPom's top 200.
UNLV's one strength this year has been its 3-point shooting. Through five games, the Rebels are shooting 35.7% from deep and have scored 48% of their points from beyond the arc - the fourth-highest mark in the country. That's one area where Pepperdine's defense thrives, holding opponents to 25.6% from three on decent volume. Both of these teams are hard to trust, but the matchup clearly favors the Waves.
Pick: Pepperdine -2.5
Appalachian State @ No. 10 Tennessee (-18.5), Dec. 15 @ 7 p.m. ET
Tennessee bettors got away with one in Saturday's win over Cincinnati (+7), which was covering for all but the final 11 seconds. Regardless, the Volunteers are still 2-0 against the spread and look every bit like one of the top teams in college basketball.
Their defense was elite against Colorado and Cincinnati, holding both below 60 points while generating a turnover on 29.5% of possessions - the sixth-highest mark by any defense thus far. That's the recipe for Tennessee's success: limit possessions and high-value attempts on one end, and target easy looks inside and at the line on the other end.
That should scare Appalachian State, which has gotten off to a 4-1 start despite sloppy ball control and an inability to get to the line. This game will come down to whether the Mountaineers can make enough threes to keep this within the number. Don't count on it.
Pick: Tennessee -18.5
Loyola Chicago @ No. 12 Wisconsin (-10.5), Dec. 15 @ 8 p.m.
Wisconsin profiles as one of the best teams in the country, but it sure hasn't played like it. The Badgers have dropped three of their first five games ATS, losing to Marquette on Dec. 4 before covering by half a point against Rhode Island in their last game.
Wisconsin's style of play is effective in the long run - it boasts one of the slowest tempos in the country, doesn't turn the ball over, and doesn't allow easy looks inside. Yet that isn't an approach that lends itself to winning big, and it's not one well-suited to beating Loyola Chicago.
The Ramblers also love to slow things down, and they're even more efficient on offense while taking care of the rock. Wisconsin has a clear size advantage, but it'll struggle to shut down Loyola Chicago's offense completely. At this number, that's what it would take to cover.
Pick: Loyola Chicago +10.5
Georgia Tech @ No. 15 Florida State (-7.5), Dec. 15 @ 8:30 p.m.
This is my favorite play of the day, and it has everything to do with the matchup. As per usual, Florida State is the tallest team in the country, and it's used that size effectively. The school ranks No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency, 15th in opposing turnover percentage (26.6%), and 18th in offensive rebounding percentage (37.9%).
Georgia Tech shocked the world with a win over Kentucky earlier this year, which came on the strength of its inside scoring. Those buckets won't be there against the Seminoles, and the Yellow Jackets simply aren't capable of winning from the perimeter - they've shot 38.1% or worse in all four games this year.
Florida State is coming off wins against Indiana and Florida, both of which are ranked in the top 25 in adjusted efficiency via KenPom and T-Rank. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is outside the top 60 by both metrics, and it features one of the smallest lineups in the country. This one shouldn't be close.
Pick: Florida State -7.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.