CBB weekly betting preview: Texas still undervalued in favorable matchup
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We're back in business this week with our best college basketball plays after a 5-0 record against the spread during Wednesday's opening slate. Numbers are a bit more well-adjusted across the board this week, but there's still plenty of value on the right matchups.
Here are a few of my favorite bets for the week.
No. 19 Texas (-7.5) vs. Davidson, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET
I'm going to keep betting Texas until the market adjusts, and it clearly hasn't yet. The Longhorns easily covered during last week's 91-55 win over Texas-Rio Grande Valley behind the nation's No. 2 defense in adjusted efficiency. That defense is a key reason why Texas is my favorite bet to win it all.
Shaka Smart's group is particularly adept at forcing turnovers and preventing easy ball movement, which is the ideal formula for disrupting a Davidson team built on taking care of the ball and creating easy perimeter looks. If Texas can control the tempo, this game won't be close.
Pick: Texas -7.5
Alabama (-2.5) vs. Stanford, Nov. 30 at 9:30 p.m.
I believe in both of these teams this year, but sometimes the number decides for you. Stanford's defense should be among the country's best after posting top-10 numbers a year ago, and it won't take long for the Cardinal's offense to find an identity with Oscar da Silva feasting inside and star recruit Ziaire Williams taking over when needed.
Alabama's offense is fun and the nation's fastest, but it isn't particularly efficient right now. The Crimson Tide should run into trouble against a well-rested Stanford team that will benefit from five days to prepare. Take the points in this one.
Pick: Stanford +2.5
No. 10 Kentucky (-1.5) vs. No. 6 Kansas, Dec. 1 at 9:30 p.m.
I was expecting this line to unfairly swing against Kentucky after a defensible loss to a senior-laden Richmond squad. So I was surprised after seeing the betting market is shortchanging Kansas, not Kentucky, in this neutral-site contest.
The Wildcats entered the year outside of KenPom's projected top 10, and they now rank 19th after Sunday's loss, which did raise some concerns about their offense's ability to sustain for 40 minutes. So how, exactly, is Kentucky favored over a Kansas team that lost to No. 1 Gonzaga before demolishing a respectable St. Joe's squad with a strong defensive effort?
The Jayhawks rank fifth in adjusted efficiency margin and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have the height to withstand the forthcoming 2-point assault from the Wildcats' loaded frontcourt. They're also projected to win this game by three points, which makes the line even more baffling.
Pick: Kansas +1.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.