CBB opening day betting preview: Lay the points on Big 12 dark horses

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After eight long, uncertain months of waiting, the first taste of college basketball action is finally here - and it's arriving with a bang. There are nearly 125 games scheduled Wednesday from early afternoon until after midnight featuring some of the nation's top teams.

We were initially supposed to get an even juicier slate of opening games, but a host of cancellations and postponements has thinned out the schedule. No matter - what some of these games might lack in name recognition, they make up for it in sweet, unfiltered value.

Here are my five favorite plays on the opening day of the 2020-21 season.

Oklahoma State (-6.5, 139.5) @ UT Arlington

Sometimes, a line just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and this is one of those times. Yes, Oklahoma State is coming off an 18-14 season and has struggled on the road in recent years. But 6.5 points against UT Arlington, a team it's beaten in 11 of its 12 all-time meetings? Really?

Star freshman Cade Cunningham is better than any player in the history of UT Arlington basketball, and he joins a Cowboys squad that won eight of its last 11 games in 2020 with its losses coming against top-10 teams, per KenPom. I'd call this a trap game if the number were doubled; at this price, it's a steal.

Pick: Oklahoma State -6.5

Texas-Rio Grande Valley @ No. 19 Texas (-19.5, 137.5)

If we know one thing about Texas entering the season, it's this team's defense is legit. The Longhorns return 12 scholarship players from a team that ranked 24th in defensive efficiency in 2019-20, which is projected to rise to fourth this year with five-star forward Greg Brown joining the rotation.

Texas-Rio Grande Valley has had one of the worst offenses in the NCAA for over a decade, which coach Lew Hill has attempted to mask with an up-tempo attack over the last four years. Don't expect that to fly against Shaka Smart's tenacious defense in the season opener. This could get ugly in a hurry.

Pick: Texas -19.5

No. 22 UCLA (-3, 133.5) @ San Diego State

This number has started to run at some shops as excitement builds about UCLA, which returns nearly everyone from last year's red-hot team. But are we sure we aren't too quick to bury San Diego State? The Aztecs are months removed from flirting with a No. 1 seed, and while star Malachi Flynn is gone, this team is still stacked with the same type of senior leaders and depth shooters that made it so dangerous a year ago.

The Aztecs are getting three points here but are actually projected to beat the Bruins, per KenPom and T-Rank. They're also notoriously tough at home, with a 27-16 record against the spread since 2017. In a coin-flip game, give me the points on the home side.

Pick: San Diego State +3

Eastern Michigan @ No. 13 Michigan State (-20.5, 136.5)

I can't say I feel great about fading Michigan State as a 20-point favorite, a spot it's covered 24 of its last 31 tries. But something about this game strikes me as trouble. Coach Tom Izzo was in quarantine for much of the two weeks leading up to this game, which can't help a team dealing with significant turnover from last year's squad.

Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman are gone, and while the Spartans have the talent to supplement those losses, it'll take time for Michigan State to find its identity. That's been the case for years - the Spartans are 2-6 ATS in season openers since 2011 with a pair of consecutive outright losses. Eastern Michigan has been a bit frisky in recent seasons, and while it won't win here, don't be surprised if this one is closer than it should be.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +20.5

Northwestern State @ No. 14 Texas Tech (-24.5, N/A)

I've made no secret of how much I love this Texas Tech team, which is one of my best bets to win the national title at 25-1. The Red Raiders have maintained their defensive prowess since that 2018-19 run to the national title game, and now they add a top-10 recruiting class and two top transfers to ignite this team's oft-stagnant offense.

I just don't expect Northwestern State - one of the nation's worst teams for the better part of a decade - to have the firepower nor the fortitude to withstand the barrage of switching and defensive pressure that Chris Beard will certainly throw at the Demons. I'd almost feel bad if there wasn't money to be made on it.

Pick: Texas Tech -24.5

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.