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CBB weekly betting preview: Can Baylor, West Virginia avoid road upsets?

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Here's a betting breakdown of the week's top college basketball matchups.

Stats and rankings are as of Monday, Jan. 27

Pittsburgh at Duke (Tuesday)

Duke rebounded from consecutive defeats to Clemson and Louisville with an easy win home win over Miami last Tuesday. The Blue Devils should keep it going when they face Pittsburgh, which is 3-4 in its last seven games and coming off a loss to Syracuse.

Despite its recent losing streak, Duke remains the only team in college basketball that ranks inside the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Pitt's shooting struggles could be problematic, as Duke is averaging 83 points per game; fifth-best in the country. The Panthers rank 338th in points per game at 66.4 and shoot just 30.1% (312th) from 3-point range.

Duke is 4-4 against the spread since Christmas, while Pittsburgh failed to cover in its only game as a double-digit underdog this season, losing to Louisville 64-46. Duke is projected to be around a 17-point favorite Tuesday night, but with Pitt struggling to score points, look for the Blue Devils to win by at least 20.

West Virginia at Texas Tech (Wednesday)

West Virginia continues to be one of college basketball's biggest surprises this season. The Mountaineers are coming off blowout wins over Missouri and Texas after losing to Kansas State. They rank No. 1 in defensive efficiency and enter Tuesday allowing only 60 points per game.

Texas Tech has lost two straight and four of six overall. The Red Raiders are also a tremendous defensive squad, ranking sixth in efficiency and surrendering just 62.5 points per contest. However, scoring points has been an issue over the past month; Texas Tech has failed to top 54 points in three of its last four losses.

The Mountaineers have been among college basketball's most profitable teams, covering seven of their last eight games. However, West Virginia is still being undervalued by oddsmakers and is expected to be around a pick on the road Wednesday night. While this looks like a good spot on paper to back the home team, Texas Tech's recent offensive woes will be an issue against the Mountaineers' suffocating defense. The lean here is to West Virginia pulling out a tough road win.

Baylor at Iowa State (Wednesday)

Top-ranked Baylor continued to avoid this year's No. 1 curse by easily defeating Florida on the road Saturday night, 72-61. The Bears are led by their defense, which allows just 58.6 points per game (fifth), and Baylor is one of only five teams that ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Iowa State will need a monumental effort at home to hand Baylor its first Big 12 loss of the season. The Cyclones have dropped six of eight and lost to Baylor by 13 points in Waco, Texas, two weeks ago. In that game, Iowa State was held to 55 points and shot a lowly 6-of-23 (23%) from 3-point range. The Cyclones were also dominated on the glass, getting outrebounded 45-33.

Despite being the country's No. 1 team, Baylor hasn't been a big favorite often this season and has gone a stellar 12-6 ATS. The Bears are projected to be around a 7-point favorite on the road Wednesday night, making it only the second time that they've been laying points in a true away game this season. The best bet in this game could be the under. The two teams combined for 123 points in the first meeting and the total Wednesday is expected to be around 140. Lean to the under if the number is 139 or higher.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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