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CBB weekend betting preview: Big 12 heavyweights face off in Kansas

Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

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There are only two matchups between top-25 teams on this weekend's slate, but one of them is a crucial Big 12 contest between Kansas and Baylor. The winner will be in the driver's seat for the conference title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Here's a betting breakdown of this weekend's top matchups.

No. 4 Baylor at No. 3 Kansas

One of the biggest games of the entire season will take place on Saturday when Baylor visits Kansas in a battle of top-five teams.

Both sides have been getting it done with defense. Baylor will enter Saturday's matchup ranked sixth in defensive efficiency after holding six of its last seven opponents under 60 points. For the season, the Bears have allowed 58.4 points per game, the ninth-best mark in the nation. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks rank second in defensive efficiency and have held opponents to just 61 points per game (27th).

The difference between these teams can be seen at the offensive end, where Kansas ranks 11th in efficiency and third in effective field-goal percentage, while Baylor sits just 31st and 140th, respectively. Additionally, Kansas has played the nation's toughest schedule, according to KenPom, while Baylor's SOS ranks just 114th.

Kansas is projected to be around a 7-point favorite at home, and that feels like too much against a gritty team like Baylor. Look for the Bears to make this game ugly. In a battle between two of the country's top defensive sides, grab the points with the road 'dog.

No. 21 Texas Tech at No. 17 West Virginia

West Virginia has been one of college basketball's surprise teams so far. The program will enter Saturday with a 12-2 record, and one of those losses was a tight 60-53 road defeat at Kansas. Defense is typically a strength of coach Bob Huggins' teams, and this year has been no different. The Mountaineers rank third in defensive efficiency and have allowed 60.4 points per game (19th). They also sit No. 1 in effective field-goal percentage defense and No. 2 in 3-point defense.

Texas Tech is 10-4 on the season but has struggled against good teams - the four losses came against Baylor, DePaul, Iowa, and Creighton. The Red Raiders did upset Louisville on a neutral court, but otherwise, their tournament resume is thin. For Texas Tech to pull off the road upset on Saturday, it will need to compete on the boards, where West Virginia holds a big edge. The Mountaineers are averaging five more rebounds per game than the Red Raiders and rank seventh in offensive-rebounding percentage.

Texas Tech has been playing better recently after a three-game skid in late November. However, its offense was stymied by Baylor at home last game and will likely endure similar issues in Morgantown. West Virginia has covered five of its last six games, and I believe that trend will continue with a comfortable victory at home.

No. 12 Ohio State at Indiana

Ohio State continued its downward swoon on Tuesday night, losing to Maryland 67-55. The Buckeyes have now dropped three straight and four of six after starting the season 9-0. The problem for Ohio State has come at the offensive end. The Buckeyes have failed to reach 60 points during their three-game losing streak and have shot just 22.3% from 3-point range during that span.

They'll try to get right against an Indiana team that's lost two of three. The Hoosiers are coming into this matchup averaging 77 points per game, but they've been inconsistent at the defensive end, allowing an average of 67 points. In their losses to Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Maryland, the Hoosiers surrendered 76.6 points per game.

Ohio State went from a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to 1-3 in the Big Ten in just under a month. At this point, a berth in the tourney could be in jeopardy if the Buckeyes don't start winning. That's hard to fathom for a team that still ranks top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency by KenPom.

The Buckeyes opened the season by going 8-1 ATS, but they've covered just two of six since then. It's hard to trust either of these teams right now, but I'm leaning toward Ohio State covering as a short road favorite thanks to a strong defensive effort.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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