Why has Duke been better without Bagley?

When Duke first squared off against Michigan State this season, the Blue Devils entered the game as favorites - and much of that was thanks to super-freshman Marvin Bagley III.

Going into that game on Nov. 14, 2017, Duke and Michigan State were the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the nation, respectively. The Blue Devils were 2-0, while the Spartans had won their only game of the season. It's unfair to judge a game so early on in the season, but in hindsight, an argument can be made that there was a hint of foreshadowing from the result.

Bagley had dominated in his first two games with the Blue Devils, scoring 25 and 24, respectively, while nabbing 10 boards in each game. Both were blowout wins for Duke and nobody questioned the talent of Bagley. He had just come out of high school as ESPN's top-ranked recruit - over names like Michael Porter Jr., Deandre Ayton, and Mohamed Bamba - and his athleticism, high IQ, and versatility were major talking points coming into the season.

Just 10 minutes into his anticipated matchup with Spartans big man Jaren Jackson Jr., Bagley took a shot to the eye, forcing him to miss the remainder of the game. Despite Bagley's injury, Duke rode senior sensation Grayson Allen's 37 points and pushed its record to 3-0. The win all but sealed the college world's perception that the Blue Devils were untouchable.

However, Duke's recent 10-game stretch has been far more telling. The team is 6-4, and four of those six wins came without the Blue Devils' freshman superstar. Does this expose a flaw in the heavy utilization of Bagley? It seems so.

Bagley has been outstanding on paper this season, averaging 20.7 points and 11.1 rebounds. His traditional feel for the game and understanding of post positioning has turned him into an old-school style big with a modern twist. He's a strong ball handler capable of creating his own shot and with his crafty set of post moves, Bagley has been nothing short of dominant around the basket. However, nobody is perfect, and Bagley's inability to defend or create for others has been a detriment to Duke at times.

For one, the defensive deficiencies are obvious, and teams have been attacking Bagley all year. It became clear when Bagley sat out four games with a mild knee sprain. Prior to the injury, Duke had lost two of three, including a loss to St. John's, who entered the contest on an 11-game losing streak. When Bagley was forced out, his Blue Devils won four straight, allowing just 58.5 points per game without his services. For comparison sake, in the team's four most recent losses, Duke allowed 73 points per game - and Bagley was available for every game.

Bagley has the athleticism to serve as an above-average defender, but a lack of effort often gets the best of him. At 6-foot-11 and 234 pounds, he is built well for the modern game. His size should, at the very least, allow him to keep teams honest around the basket. However, he blocks just three percent of shots when he's on the floor, ranking 410th in the nation, according to Kenpom.

Duke gets a lot of its rim protection from starting center and fellow freshman Wendell Carter Jr., who blocks 7.8 percent of shots. Carter has stepped up in Bagley's absence, and during the four games without his front-court partner, he averaged 16.3 points and 10.5 rebounds. Carter in more of a primary role has proved to be effective, as he plays within the offense and is capable of being the defensive anchor Duke sorely needs.

As for the team's second-leading scorer, Allen becomes a stud when he isn't deferring to Bagley. In the chart below, it shows the insane extent Duke relies on Allen when he becomes the top option (the Michigan State game was included considering Bagley went out early). He takes 4.5 more shots in Bagley's absence and gets to the line significantly more frequently.

With a roster full of top-tier recruits, Duke hasn't necessarily needed Bagley to dominate the ball. The recruiting class for Duke is always among the best, if not the best. This season, it was able to grab four of the top eight recruits in the country - Bagley (1st), Carter (5th), Trevon Duval (6th), and Gary Trent Jr. (8th). All four have started alongside Allen as Duke currently sits at 24-6 so far, but just 12-5 in the ACC with one game to go.

Conference play helps really expose many of the weaknesses for teams. It's plausible that a large kink in the armor of one of the best teams in the nation is now visible. It may be unfair to say the 19-year-old freshman can't help lead the Blue Devils to a National Championship, however, with just one game to go against rival North Carolina on Saturday night, it won't be easy for Bagley to save his draft stock and show something different in his game.