Celtics may be on to something with 3-PG lineups

by Blake Murphy
Boston Globe / Getty

Sometimes it's just about acquiring talent and figuring out how the pieces fit on the fly.

The Boston Celtics' roster hasn't been constructed very well on paper. There are talented players, and what seems like a very good coach, but the lineup isn't conducive to playing a prototypical style at either end.

That's fine given where the Celtics are on the development curve. Right now, they're trying to maturate the players they have, improving each one's value to the team and the trade market. General manager Danny Ainge is hyper-aggressive, and knows from experience that assets are assets, and they don't have to work well together to have value to a franchise.

Boston's offseason moves at the guard positions weren't all that surprising, when looked at through the appropriate lens. Sure, drafting Marcus Smart with the No. 6 pick, and then signing Avery Bradley to a four-year, $32-million contract, pointed to an exodus for incumbent point guard Rajon Rondo. 

But there are 96 minutes for guards over the course of a game. That's plenty for all three, especially since Smart can capably play both guard spots.

Smart's acquisition and Bradley's deal appeared to be part of a larger plan to accumulate talent and worry about fit once the team is ready to compete. The assumption was that Smart would learn on the job while backing up both Rondo and Bradley. That's a pretty good spot for a rookie point guard to land in, and it's largely been the case so far.

The Celtics may have stumbled on something with their trio of aggressive guards, though. Through four games, the three have actually played an unexpected 28 minutes together.

This seems, at first blush, a risky strategy. Rondo is just 6-foot-1 and 186 pounds, Bradley a svelte 6-2 and 180, and Smart a bulkier 6-4, 220. Smart is big and strong, but playing him at small forward seemed risky. Bradley's a strong perimeter defender but simply too small to handle bigger threes.

If those three are to play together, especially with a shaky defensive frontline behind them, it will require Brad Stevens to get creative in terms of defensive strategy. All three players are tenacious on-ball defenders, and the early evidence suggests they'll play a hyper-aggressive style. 

Celtics Lineups 3-PG All Other All Lineups
Minutes 28 164 192
D-Rating 114.5 106.4 107.6
Opp TO/36min 17.9 11.5 12.2
Steals/36min 12.8 4.6 5.8
O-Rating 118.2 104.2 106.2

The jump in opponent turnover rate for the Celtics is incredible when those three guards take the floor together. While the defense as a whole has been worse - three point guards leaves a team susceptible to some disadvantages off switches in the pick-and-roll and in the post - it's one very encouraging result.

In part because of those turnovers, the Celtics' offense with three guards has been better. Multi-guard lineups historically do well offensively and struggle defensively. The biggest impact of those turnovers so far has been the effect it has on the team's transition game, with the Celtics running like they're the Suns.

Lineups Pts off TO/36 Fast Break Pts/36
3-PG 21.7 33.2
All Others 17.8 9.9
Total 18.4 13.3

The Celtics won't be able to run it against every team, and Stevens will have to pick his spots, but he may have stumbled on a new tool to change the tempo of games and introduce chaos to the proceedings when an opponent gets too comfortable.

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