How Ricky Rubio's shooting holds him back from true stardom

Between his breathtaking playmaking ability and defensive potential, Ricky Rubio entered the 2009 NBA Draft and joined the Timberwolves as one of the most hyped young point guards in some time. His appearance as a 17-year-old on the Spanish national team against the American 'Redeem Team' in the 2008 Olympic Gold Medal game and his early pro experience in Spain helped with that, as did the fact that the same limited exposure may have kept his weaknesses under wraps to most fans.

Rubio is a 23-year-old starting point guard in the NBA (in the vaunted golden age of point guards, no less) on a team with realistic playoff aspirations, so it's not like he's anything close to a failure. Far from it. In addition, Rubio is currently fifth in the NBA at 8.2 assists per game, ranks ninth with a 3.07 assist-to-turnover-ratio, leads the league with 2.66 steals per game and holds a slightly above average Player Efficiency Rating of 15.29.

Most importantly, Rubio makes his team drastically better when he is on the floor, as the Timberwolves outscore opponents by an average of 8.3 points per 48 minutes with Rubio on the court as opposed to being outscored by 2.4 points per 48 minutes with the Spaniard on the bench. Minnesota's offense scores 108.2 points per 100 possessions with Rubio playing and just 99 per 100 without their young point guard, per NBA.com's on-court/off-court data.

In other words, by most measures, Ricky Rubio is already a solid, above average NBA point guard at 23. The caveat here, of course, is that the Timberwolves didn't draft Rubio fifth overall (over Curry) four years ago to be merely a solid, above average point guard. They drafted him with hopes that he'd one day become an All-Star point guard - if not a superstar - to pair with Kevin Love as part of a future championship core. And for all of Rubio's strengths, for all of his youth and potential, none of it will be realized if the youngster continues to shoot and finish at the rim with such futility.

As Mike D'Antoni reminded us last week when asked about Kendall Marshall's improved shooting, "You can't play on the floor if you can't shoot. There's very few guys. You have to be extraordinary at what you do like a Rondo or somebody and you've got to keep getting better shooting."

We'll get back to Rondo in a moment, but for now let's stick with Marshall. The UNC product with similar court vision to Rubio (but much less defensive potential) has a reputation for not being able to shoot or keep defenses honest himself, a reputation that was proven correct in a disappointing rookie season with the Suns. This season with the Lakers, however, Marshall is shooting a ridiculous 47 percent from three-point territory, and while that level of marksmanship is obviously unsustainable, it's at least a sign that Marshall's shooting is taking encouraging steps forward in his sophomore season.

With Rubio's finishing touch, there are few such encouraging signs through parts of three NBA seasons.

Rubio's hideous field goal percentage has stayed mostly steady, from 35.7 percent as a rookie in 2011-12, to 36 percent in 2012-13, to 35.8 percent this season. His three-point shooting, at least, does provide some hope, as Rubio shot a respectable 34 percent on 94 attempts and is shooting 35.1 percent on 74 attempts this season, with the only blemish on what has otherwise been a pretty average long range shooter being a 29.3 percent success rate as a sophomore last season.

He's also an 80-plus-percent free throw shooter, and if he can get to the line more than three or four times per game, those free points should help him negate the poor overall finishing. The problem there is that it's harder to draw fouls when defenses aren't that concerned with you, and Rubio doesn't have nearly the body or strength of some of the non-shooter guards who can finish at the rim through contact or get to the line (Rubio's career Free Throw Attempt Rate - FTA/FGA - of .434 is actually excellent for a point guard, but he doesn't shoot enough to actually make much of a difference at the line).

Where things are most dire are for Rubio is at the rim, and that's where any Rondo comparison must end. Both are gifted playmakers without the benefit of a shooting touch who excel defending the point, but the difference is that Rondo can at least keep defenses honest with his ability to drive and finish, whereas the most perplexing flaw in Rubio's game is his horrendous finishing rate in the paint.

Rondo shot 48 percent within eight feet of the basket as a rookie, upped that to 54 percent as a sophomore and then 56 percent in Year Three. Last season Rondo shot 62.1 percent at the rim (within three feet) where the league average for point guards, according to HoopData, was 60.8 percent. Rubio's shooting percentage from within eight feet has barely moved - from 40 percent as a rookie to 41 percent last season and now 43 percent this season. His finishing rate at the rim last season? 44.4 percent.

For both some giggles and cringes, here is Rubio's overall shotchart this season:

For what it's worth, when you look at comparable point guards in the three-point era who have shot as poorly and assisted as well as Rubio through three seasons, you get Jason Kidd, Kenny Anderson and Jamaal Tinsley, which only adds more intrigue to the different directions Rubio's career can go. 

Opposing teams should respect Rubio's ability to knock down the odd three-pointer, but for the most part, we're talking about a point guard that defenses don't have to be concerned about from a shooting or driving standpoint, and that's a problem for the T-Wolves.

Rubio can continue to be a solid NBA lead guard if he remains the type of player that will make teammates better and get after it on defense, but he can become the star Minnesota needs to compliment Kevin Love (and Nikola Pekovic) and can make teammates that much better if he develops even a semi-respectable individual offensive game.

Right now, with such a deep talent pool at the point guard spot (Paul, Parker, Curry, Westbrook, Lillard, Lawson, Irving, Wall, Bledsoe, Lowry, Conley, Thomas, Williams, Holiday, Jackson, healthy Rose, etc.) Rubio isn't a top-10 player at his position, and you'd be hard pressed to even place him in the top-15. That's directly attributable to his porous shooting and close range finishing, and it's simply not good enough for the Wolves, who have to hope Rubio is either part of the reason Love stays in Minnesota beyond his current contract (Love can opt for free agency after next season) or part of the reason for continued hope in the event Love bolts for greener pastures.