Jokic out: What it means for the Nuggets, the West, and awards

Although Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets avoided catastrophe, a hyperextended left knee will keep the three-time MVP out of action for at least four weeks. It's jarring for NBA fans to consider life without the big man, who's been remarkably durable and virtually inevitable over his 11-year career.

Jokic has never missed more than 13 games in a season and has never been sidelined for more than seven consecutive contests. So let's look at the potential ripple effects and big questions that arise as the best player in the world faces his first significant absence.

Can the Nuggets survive this?

The arrival of Jonas Valanciunas - Denver's best backup center of the Jokic era - plus a deeper roster were supposed to help the team keep its head above water when Jokic rested this season. The Nuggets got off to a promising start in that regard, but that feels like a lifetime ago, as they're back to losing non-Jokic minutes by a wide margin. Injuries to Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) haven't helped, but Denver has been outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench, which is equivalent to how the 26th-place Jazz perform on a nightly basis.

Jokic once again leads the league in on/off differential among the 313 players who've logged at least 300 minutes, leading to some uncomfortable questions in the Mile High City. If Jokic returns exactly four weeks from Tuesday (Jan. 27), he would miss 15 games. Ten of those are on the road, though the Nuggets will face a team that currently boasts a winning record in just five of them. I'd expect Denver to be favored in about six or seven.

Four weeks is also the best-case scenario. If Jokic misses a fifth week, he'd be sidelined for games against the East-leading Pistons, league-leading Thunder, and suddenly surging Clippers.

Jamal Murray is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and he's helped Jokic pace a record-setting offense, but the Canadian guard can only do so much. Gordon and Braun should be back relatively soon, but for the time being, the Nuggets will roll out a rotation of Murray, Valanciunas, Spencer Jones, Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, and DaRon Holmes II.

That's not scaring (or beating) anyone, especially in the West.

Keep an eye on the West playoff race

The Western Conference has been more forgiving than usual thanks to its bottom half completely imploding. That means Denver won't have to worry about falling out of the postseason picture, as the Nuggets are already 9.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Jazz.

But only 2.5 games separate the Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Lakers, and Timberwolves in the race for Nos. 2-6 behind Oklahoma City. And though the Warriors have been one of the league's most disappointing teams, Golden State has won four of its last five. If the star-studded Warriors get their act together, Denver could find itself in a dogfight just to avoid the play-in tournament.

If Jokic can return for the last couple months of the season, my money is still on Denver holding onto a top-six seed, but his absence likely means the Nuggets will find themselves in the bottom half of the conference's eight-team playoff picture. That would throw quite a wrench into what's already shaping up as a wildly entertaining West bracket.

Jokic's MVP case, All-NBA status on life support

The 65-game minimum for major award eligibility means Jokic's quest for a fourth MVP selection is likely over after finishing first or second in voting five years in a row (and top nine for seven straight years). Jokic would have to return in exactly four weeks and then not miss more than two games the rest of the season. If he misses four-and-a-half weeks and returns Feb. 1, he'll be ineligible.

That's a shame, as the race between Jokic and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was shaping up to be an all-timer. The Thunder's recent slide and Jokic's continued brilliance - including a 56-point triple-double on Christmas Day - had made The Joker the betting favorite. Now he's off the board and Gilgeous-Alexander is a -500 favorite, according to theScore Bet.

If this is the end of Jokic's candidacy and Gilgeous-Alexander stays healthy, the only mystery left is whether downballot candidates like Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham, or Jalen Brunson can give SGA a run for his money.

The MVP award is one thing, and I understand why the NBA wanted to incentivize star availability. But how ludicrous will it look if Jokic misses out on an All-NBA selection after averaging a 30-point triple-double, leading the league in rebounds and assists per game, and breaking every single-season record in advanced metrics while making 60-64 appearances? As I argued when the new eligibility rules were announced, the league should let the media it's entrusted to vote on such awards use its judgment rather than disqualifying players prematurely.

All-Star ramifications

Finally, it's worth considering how Jokic's absence will affect this year's All-Star selections.

He could return a couple weeks before the event in Los Angeles, and he should still be a safe bet to earn his eighth straight All-Star selection. But it seems unlikely that Jokic would take part in the festivities coming off a knee injury - if he's even back in the Nuggets' lineup by then. This year's format will select 24 positionless All-Stars from both conferences (12 each), but the final tally needs to include at least 16 American players and eight internationals. His injury likely boosts the stock of an international player who was on the bubble.

Murray looks poised to finally earn his first All-Star nod, especially as Denver's lone representative. Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija must also be feeling better about his chances. And if the league already has enough international players in the mix, Jokic's absence could open up a spot for another Western Conference American like Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Julius Randle, or one of the Clippers' veteran stars (Kawhi Leonard or James Harden).

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.