NBA ECF Game 7 betting: What to do with the Heat's last chance to avoid disaster

We put forth the idea that Saturday night might be the last chance for the Heat to avoid the infamy of becoming the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead. Of course, that was hyperbole.

Whether you look at the betting markets or league history, Game 6 was realistically Miami's best chance given the nature of home-court advantage. The betting market agreed as the point spread shifted from Celtics -2.5 to nearly a pick'em.

Whether Boston won by 1 or 100, Miami always had one last chance with Game 7 looming.

Derrick White's putback with 0.1 on the clock might have looked more like Tommy Heinsohn's game-winner that sent the Celtics to the Finals in 1960. It initially seemed like the Heat could exhale the moment Marcus Smart missed an off-balance 3-pointer - after a trio of clutch Jimmy Butler free throws. But now Miami finds itself on the brink of elimination for the first time since the play-in tournament.

Heat @ Celtics (-7.5, 203.5)

The first thing to look at regarding the Game 7 odds is the relation between the side and the total. We've tracked the point spreads in this series and know Boston has been favored by between 8.5 and 9.5 points depending on a couple of minor adjustments game-to-game for one reason or another. So, why are the Celtics -7.5 in Game 7?

The totals closed between 212.5 and 216.5 in the Eastern Conference final's opening five contests. The over cashed in the first three games, and the under in Games 4 and 5. Game 6's total was 209 and went under by a bucket.

Game 7's total is 203.5, more than 10 points less than some earlier totals. That's a result of sharp money apparently coming in on the under when the market opened immediately after Game 6. This often happens for NBA Game 7s, as the assumption is for a defense-forward, slow-paced, do-or-die contest.

When a total drops from the standard like this, it often leads to a tightening of a point spread since points are deemed harder to come by. In Game 1 - with the Celtics -8.5 and a 212.5 total - the projected score would be 111-102, with Boston needing to earn 52.1% of the points in a 213-point game. By comparison, 52.1% of the points in a 204-point contest would give the Celtics a 106-98 win. Even though the line is shorter, the expectation for the Celtics hasn't changed. However, the expectation for how many points will be available has changed, with the point spread going with it.

As for the game handicap, Butler's five of 21 field goals in Game 6 suggest fatigue might be a big factor, even if his head coach hasn't lost faith in his team.

In a moment of honesty, it's not knowing how to get it done that's the big issue for the Heat in an environment that should provide the Celtics with great energy. If Miami's schematic/coaching advantages were going to be the winning difference, it likely would have been by now.

The futures conundrum

You're still sitting there with a Heat +400 series ticket, and after three free chances to win, you still have +400 on a moneyline that's +235. That's a plus-9.9% expected value edge. However, if you think Miami fired its last legitimate shot and want off your position, the Celtics' moneyline provides a way out at -300.

For example, a $100 Heat bet before the series would net $400. If that's now a lost cause in your mind, you can take that prospective profit and add $80 for a $480 bet that pays $160 for a net $60 profit minus the original stake. So, you can turn a good first bet on Miami into an $80 bet on Boston to win $60, creating a synthetic moneyline price of Celtics -133. That price implies a 57.1% win probability on a result in which a current moneyline of -300 implies a 75% chance of winning. That's an almost 18% expected value edge.

The trade-off for bailing on Miami is leaving a potential big payout on a Heat win (and risking a loss) for a smaller ticket at a better value and higher win probability. Fundamentally, it's up to the bettor to decide which way they want to go, having set themselves up thanks to a good bet before the series. Do they believe Butler's and Spoelstra's assertions that they'll win Game 7, or that White's miracle bucket will be ratified as a top-10 play in Celtics history?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.